| Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| Year over Year | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| HICP - M/M | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| HICP - Y/Y | 1.9% | 1.1% |
Highlights
Consumer prices are expected to rise 1.7 percent in March year-on-year, nearly double the rise of 0.9 percent recorded in February, according to preliminary results. On a monthly basis, they will be 0.9 percent higher than the February result of 0.6 percent.
It comes as no surprise that energy prices are behind the increase given the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East resulting in a trickle of crude oil passing through the Straight of Hormuz. Compared to March of last year, energy prices are 7.3 percent higher after a 2.9 percent decrease the month before.
Food prices were up 1.8 percent year-on-year, a moderation from the 2.0 percent rise in February. While prices for manufactured goods fell 0.6 percent from a year ago, prices for services increased 1.7 percent.
The HICP measure used to standardize inflation across European countries is expected to increase 1.9 percent year-on-year in March after 1.1 percent in February and gain 1.1 percent month-on-month.
Rising energy prices are likely to remain sticky in the coming months, even if there is a resolution soon to the conflict. This will force consumers to make choices on their discretionary spending which likely will lead them to pare back on major purchases. While the knock-on effects will take some time to filter through the economy, the consumer will not be contributing significantly to first quarter GDP.