| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Index | 90.0 | 87.7 to 91.0 | 81.9 | 89.4 | 88.6 |
| M/M Change | -6.7 | -0.8 | |||
| M/M % Change | -7.6% | -0.9% |
Highlights
U.S. consumer confidence fell more than expected in September, following a downgrade to August’s reading. A deterioration in consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions combined with further souring on their outlook for future employment and income prospects, not helped by a hike in interest rates and heightened geopolitical tensions.
More consumers are saying business conditions are “bad,” while perceptions of current labor conditions softened.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell in September to 81.9, down from a revised 88.6 (previously 89.4) in August, and falling short of expectations for 90.0 in the Econoday survey of forecasters.
“The Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated notably in September, following two prior months of softening,” the Conference Board said. “Consumer appraisals of current business conditions became negative for the first time since September 2024. Perceptions of the current labor market also worsened, though remained within positive territory.”
“Over the next six months, consumers expected both business conditions and the labor market to weaken. Consumers still anticipated their household incomes to rise, but less so compared to previous months,” it added.
Consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations rose to 6.1 percent in September from 5.8 percent in August.
Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy were “mostly” pessimistic in September. “References to prices, the high cost of goods and services, and oil and gas prices in particular, rose to new heights, reflecting September’s surge in fuel costs. Comments about war/conflict eased this month but remained elevated,” the report said.
Consumers had negative views of their current financial situations in September, with more describing their finances as “bad” vs. “good.” Their expectations for the future were somewhat less optimistic compared to August.
Most consumers (68.4 percent) in September still expected higher interest rates over the next 12 months, up from 63.2 percent in August.
There was an increase in the share of consumers saying a recession over the next 12 months is “very likely,” and a decline in those who believe it is “not likely.”
On a six-month moving average basis, buying plans for autos and home purchase expectations both declined “slightly” in September.
Plans to purchase services in September were “pared back,” and the spike in gasoline prices and broader price inflation continues to weigh on consumers.
The report noted that “consumers preferred to spend on cheap thrills and necessities,” while “[a]nticipated spending for many discretionary activities moderated.”
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Forecasters expect consumer confidence to remain depressed at 90.0 in September versus 89.4 in August and 90.2 in July. Consumers continue to fret over high inflation.