| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Index | 92.3 | 90.0 to 95.0 | 90.8 | 91.2 | 92.2 |
| M/M Change | -1.4 | 0.6 | |||
| M/M % Change | -1.5% | 0.7% |
Highlights
U.S. consumer confidence fell unexpectedly in July, following an upgrade to June’s reading. An unchanged dour outlook regarding future employment and income prospects combined with a decline in consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions, with ongoing concerns about the economy and the labor market.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell in July to 90.8, down from a revised 92.2 (previously 91.2) in June, and falling short of expectations for 92.3 in the Econoday survey of forecasters.
“Consumer confidence moderated slightly in July, continuing a general downward sloping trajectory since late 2021,” the Conference Board said.
“Consumer appraisals of current business conditions and, to a lesser extent, perceptions of the current labor market both softened,” it said. “Looking ahead, consumers anticipate little improvement in business conditions over the next six months, but expectations for the labor market were slightly less negative. Expectations for household incomes moderated but remained optimistic overall.”
Consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations inched downwards to 5.5 percent in July from 5.9 percent in June.
Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to be pessimistic in July. “References to prices and oil and gas eased in frequency but remain elevated. Comments about food and grocery prices increased,” the report said. “Notably, references to jobs and unemployment picked up slightly.”
Note that the survey period coincided with the temporary pause in the war with Iran.
Consumers’ views of both their current financial situations improved after deteriorating for the third consecutive month in July, while their expectations for the future were less optimistic.
Unchanged from June, most consumers (61.3 percent) in July still expected higher interest rates over the next 12 months.
The Conference Board also said the share of consumers expecting that a recession over the next 12 months is “somewhat likely” rose again but overall expectations for an economic downturn remain low.
On a six-month moving average basis, buying plans for autos and homes continued their upward trend.
Plans to purchase services in the coming months increase.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus sees another small improvement to 92.3 in July from 91.2 in June and 90.6 in May.