| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Index | 94.8 | 92.5 to 97.5 | 91.2 | 93.1 | 90.6 |
Highlights
U.S. consumer confidence rose slightly in June, but not as much as expected and following a downgrade to May's previously encouraging reading. A more upbeat outlook regarding future employment and income prospects was offset by a downgrade in consumers' assessment of current economic conditions, with growing concerns about the labor market.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose in June to 91.2, up from a revised 90.6 (previously 93.1) in May, but falling short of expectations for 94.8 in the Econoday survey of forecasters.
Consumers had a slightly more positive view of current business conditions, as well as better expectations for the future, which offset worries about employment opportunities.
[P]erceptions of the current labor market softened measurably as the percentage of consumers saying jobs were 'hard to get' rose to 22.5 percent, the highest level since January 2021 (22.8 percent), the Conference Board said. Moreover, consumers anticipate little change in the labor market six months from now. This was offset by improving expectations for business conditions and incomes.
Perceptions of employment conditions declined, expectations for business conditions and household income improved, while the outlook for labor market conditions was unchanged.
Consumers' write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism in June, the report said. References to prices and oil and gas eased in frequency but remain elevated. Mentions of war, geopolitics, and conflict eased, reflecting some easing of consumer concerns about the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East.
Consumers' views of both their current financial situations deteriorated for the third consecutive month in June, while their expectations for the future were more optimistic.
Consumers' average 12-month inflation expectations inched downwards to 6.0 percent in June from 6.2 percent in May. While down somewhat from May (62.4 percent), most consumers (61.5 percent) in June still expected higher interest rates over the next 12 months.
The Conference Board also said the share of consumers expecting that a recession over the next 12 months is somewhat likely rose but overall expectations for an economic downturn remain low.
On a six-month moving average basis, there was a rebound in plans for buying big-ticket items moving from no to maybe while the share of those saying yes rose modestly. Buying plans for autos and homes both increased.
Plans to purchase services in the coming months shifted from no to maybe in June, but future spending plans are mixed. To soon to declare if this marks the end to the consumer-spending shift towards cheap thrills and necessary services that has been the trend so far in 2026.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Consumers are feeling a bit better now that gas prices are off their peak. The consensus looks for the index at 94.8 in June, up from 93.1 in May and 93.8 in April in the Conference Board report. The separate University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey already showed sentiment up 10 percent in June from May.
Definition
The Conference Board's confidence report surveys consumers on their assessments of the labor market, business activity, and their own financial conditions. The survey is conducted by Toluna, an online community platform. (Conference Board and Toluna)
Description
The pattern in consumer attitudes and spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
This balance was achieved through much of the nineties and, in large part because of this, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains. It was during the late nineties that the consumer confidence index hit its historic peak, reaching levels that were never matched during the subsequent 2001 to 2007 expansion nor during the long expansion following the Great Recession.
Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so the markets are always dying to know what consumers are up to and how they might behave in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. With this in mind, it's easy to see how this index of consumer attitudes gives insight to the direction of the economy. Just note that changes in consumer confidence and retail sales don't move in tandem month by month.