| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Index | 92.0 | 91.0 to 93.7 | 93.1 | 92.8 | 93.8 |
Highlights
U.S. consumer confidence fell in May, as a more upbeat outlook regarding future employment and income prospects was not enough to offset a downgrade in the assessment of current economic conditions, as energy price inflation and financial worries remain top of mind.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell less than expected in May to 93.1, down from a revised 93.8 (previously 92.8) in April, but beating expectations for 92.0 in the Econoday survey of forecasters.
On the surface, consumers appeared to have a slightly less upbeat assessment of current business and labor market conditions, but an improved short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions.
Consumer appraisals of current business conditions and the current labor market were moderately less positive compared to last month, the Conference Board said. This was somewhat offset by modest improvements in consumers' expectations for business conditions and the labor market six months from now. Meanwhile, income expectations eased in May, as those anticipating less income rose.
Perceptions of employment conditions fell slightly, expectations for household income and labor market conditions six months inched up, and expectations for business conditions were more pessimistic.
Consumers' write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism in May, the report said. References to prices and oil and gas increased in frequency for a second consecutive month, while mentions of war, geopolitics, and conflict remained elevatedlikely signaling consumers' underlying concerns about the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East on their wallets.
Consumers' views of both their current and future financial situations were also less positive in May.
Consumers' average and median 12-month inflation expectations inched downwards but remained elevated. Nearly 50 percent of consumers are now saying interest rates over the next 12 months will be higher on net.
The Conference Board also said the share of consumers expecting that a recession over the next 12 months is very likely rose again, while those saying somewhat likely or not likely declined. The percent believing we are already in one increased.
On a six-month moving average basis, the decline in plans for buying big-ticket items continues. Used cars, furniture, TVs, and smartphones remained the most popular items within their respective categories for future purchases. Homebuying expectations saw a mild rebound although there was a preference for existing properties over new homes. Plans to buy autos also continue to rise, but used cars are the clear preference.
Plans to purchase services in the coming months shifted to no in April. The consumer-spending shift last year towards cheap thrills and necessary services has continued so far in 2026.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Confidence expected to erode further to 92.0 in May from an already gloomy 92.8 in April as consumers remain upset about rising prices.
Definition
The Conference Board's confidence report surveys consumers on their assessments of the labor market, business activity, and their own financial conditions. The survey is conducted by Toluna, an online community platform. (Conference Board and Toluna)
Description
The pattern in consumer attitudes and spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
This balance was achieved through much of the nineties and, in large part because of this, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains. It was during the late nineties that the consumer confidence index hit its historic peak, reaching levels that were never matched during the subsequent 2001 to 2007 expansion nor during the long expansion following the Great Recession.
Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so the markets are always dying to know what consumers are up to and how they might behave in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. With this in mind, it's easy to see how this index of consumer attitudes gives insight to the direction of the economy. Just note that changes in consumer confidence and retail sales don't move in tandem month by month.