| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Index | 88.5 | 86.0 to 89.5 | 91.8 | 91.2 | 91.0 |
Highlights
U.S. consumer confidence rebounded in February, lifted a more upbeat outlook regarding future employment and income prospects, even as concerns remain about current economic conditions, with consume price inflation and financial worries top of mind.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index increased unexpectedly in March to 91.8, up from a revised 91.0 (previously 91.2) in February, and beating expectations for 88.5 in the Econoday survey of forecasters.
On the surface, consumers appeared to have a more upbeat assessment of current business and labor market conditions, while souring slightly on the short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions.
While not obvious in the headline or its component indexes, the weight of rising costs due to tariff passthrough and spiking oil prices was evident among other measures in the survey like inflation expectations, the Conference Board said. Three of five components of the Index firmed in March, and overall confidence improved modestly for a second month. Nonetheless, the Index has been on a general downward trend since 2021.
Perceptions of employment conditions improved slightly, however, expectations for household income and labor market conditions six months from now were more negative, while expectations for business conditions were more positive.
Consumers' write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism, the report said. Comments about prices and the cost of goods suggest that the cost of living remained at the top of consumers' minds.
As the war in Iran overlapped significantly with the survey sample period, comments about oil/gas and war/conflict spiked, while specific mentions of trade and tariffs decreased notably, it added.
Consumers' views of their current financial situations saw a small improvement in March, after turning negative in February. Expectations for their 'Family's Future Financial Situation' continued to be pessimistic.
Given the impact of the war in the Middle East on energy prices, consumers' average and median 12-month inflation expectations surged in March to the highest level since August 2025.
The Conference Board also said the share of consumers expecting that a recession over the next 12 months is very likely rose, while those saying not likely declined. Respondents who said recession is somewhat likely over the next year also fell, and the percent believing we are already in one was unchanged.
On a six-month moving average basis, there was a decrease in plans for buying big-ticket items. Used cars, furniture, TVs, and smartphones remained the most popular items within their respective categories for future purchases. Homebuying expectations were somewhat lower for both existing and new units in the month, with consumers continuing to prefer existing homes over newly built ones.
Plans to purchase services in the coming months softened in March shifted to no. The consumer spending shift last year towards cheap thrills and necessary services has continued so far in 2026.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus sees confidence down at 88.5 in March versus 91.1 in February and 89.0 in January. Worries about inflation and jobs continue to weigh and the Iran war is darkening the picture for consumers.
Definition
The Conference Board's confidence report surveys consumers on their assessments of the labor market, business activity, and their own financial conditions. The survey is conducted by Toluna, an online community platform. (Conference Board and Toluna)
Description
The pattern in consumer attitudes and spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
This balance was achieved through much of the nineties and, in large part because of this, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains. It was during the late nineties that the consumer confidence index hit its historic peak, reaching levels that were never matched during the subsequent 2001 to 2007 expansion nor during the long expansion following the Great Recession.
Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so the markets are always dying to know what consumers are up to and how they might behave in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. With this in mind, it's easy to see how this index of consumer attitudes gives insight to the direction of the economy. Just note that changes in consumer confidence and retail sales don't move in tandem month by month.