| Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | -0.6% | -0.1% |
Highlights
The Conference Board's US leading indicator index fell 0.6 percent in March, resuming its slide following February's 0.3 percent increase and January's 0.1 percent drop. Over the six-month period between September 2025 and March 2026, the LEI fell 1.0 percent, a much slower decline than the 2.1 percent plunge over the preceding six-month period.
The Conference Board said weak consumer expectations and stock prices, combined with a decline in building permits, dragged down the LEI in March. The LEI continues to signal a slowdown in the economy over the coming months, as higher oil prices and supply chain tensions will likely place additional upward pressure on inflation and further reduce consumers' purchasing power, the report added.
The labor market, while currently stable, may soften with hiring slowing and unemployment edging higher. Growth will likely remain modest, as weaker consumer spending offsets some strength in business investment and defense-related activity, it warned.
The Conference Board has revised its U.S. GDP growth forecast down to well below 2 percent, down to 1.6 percent year-over-year for 2026.
The Conference Board US Coincident Economic Index was flat in March and February, following a 0.3 percent increase in January. Overall, the CEI is up 0.3 percent in the six-month period ending in March, picking up the pace from the 0.1 percent growth rate over the previous six-month period. The CEI's componentspayroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial productionare included in the data used to determine recessions in the United States.
In March, the positive contribution from employment with estimated positive contributions from personal income and manufacturing and trade sales were offset by weakness in industrial production, resulting in no change in the measure, the report said.
The Conference Board US Lagging Economic Index was up 0.3 percent in March, building on a 0.2 percent increase in February and a 0.3 percent rise in January. The LAG grew 0.7 percent over the six-month period ending in March.
Definition
The index of leading economic indicators is a composite of 10 forward-looking components including building permits, new factory orders, and unemployment claims. The report attempts to predict general economic conditions six months out.
Description
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the index of leading indicators, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly -- and causing potential inflationary pressures. The index of leading indicators is designed to predict turning points in the economy -- such as recessions and recoveries. More specifically, it was designed to lead the index of coincident indicators, also now published by The Conference Board. Investors like to see composite indexes because they tell an easy story, although they are not always as useful as they promise. The majority of the components of the leading indicators have been reported earlier in the month so that the composite index doesn't necessarily reveal new information about the economy. Bond investors tend to be less interested in this index than equity investors. Also, the non-financial media tends to give this index more press than it deserves.