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CA: Industrial Product Price Index
| Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| IPPI - M/M | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% |
| IPPI - Y/Y | 14.5% | 13.5% | 13.2% |
| Raw Materials Price Index - M/M | 4.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% |
| Raw Materials Price Index - Y/Y | 27.0% | 22.8% | 22.9% |
Highlights
The Industrial Product Price Index rose 2.0 percent in September after 1.2 percent in August, for a 12-month gain of 14.5 percent, with a new phase of intensification of the Iran conflict driving energy and petroleum product prices higher.
Excluding energy and petroleum products, industrial prices increased 0.3 percent on the month and 8.5 percent year-over-year, with energy and petroleum up 12.1 percent and 63.9 percent, respectively.
The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) increased 4.8 percent on the month and 27.0 percent year-over-year, with crude energy product prices rising 14.4 percent and 55.2 percent, respectively. Excluding this category, raw material prices actually contracted 0.4 percent on the month, while still up 13.8 percent from a year earlier.
At the retail level, inflation also accelerated in September, with the CPI rising 3.1 percent from a year earlier after 3.0 percent in August, while core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained close to target and did not acclerate, at 2.1 percent.
Looking ahead, the third quarter Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey published this week showed that expectations for selling and input price increases remained high even as they moderated from the previous quarter. Overall inflation expectations over the next two years remained sticky despite some improvement: 41 percent of surveyed firms still saw expectations above 3 percent within two years, slightly down from 44 percent in the previous survey. This is in addition to 49 percent expecting inflation to still be above target, between 2 and 3 percent.
Taken together, it is becoming harder for the central bank to continue to justify looking through the energy impact on inflation.
Definition
The Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) reflects the prices that producers in Canada receive as the goods leave the plant gate. The IPPI excludes indirect taxes and all the costs that occur between the time a good leaves the plant and the time the final user takes possession of it, including the transportation, wholesale, and retail costs. The report also contains a measure of domestic producers' raw material costs (RMPI) which can be seen as a very loose leading indicator of the IPPI.
Description
The IPPI reflects the prices that Canadian producers receive when goods leave the factory gate, that is, what producers receive for their output. This index is similar to the United Kingdom's producer output index. The index includes prices for major commodities sold by manufacturers, but it excludes indirect taxes and items such as transportation and wholesale and retail costs. The index is affected by the foreign exchange rate of the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar, and each month its impact is noted. The RMPI reflects the prices paid by Canadian manufacturers for key raw materials, either domestically or in world markets. It is published simultaneously with the IPPI and, like that index, has a base year of 1997 and is subject to revisions for six months. This index is analogous to the producer input price index published in the United Kingdom.
The IPPI and RMPI measure prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. Since these indexes measure prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI). By tracking price pressures in the pipeline, investors can anticipate inflationary consequences in coming months.
While the CPI is the price index with the most impact in setting interest rates, the PPI provides significant information earlier in the production process. As a starting point, interest rates have an"inflation premium" and components for risk factors. A lender will want the money paid back from a loan to at least have the same purchasing power as when loaned. The interest rate at a minimum equals the inflation rate to maintain purchasing power and this generally is based on the CPI. Changes in inflation lead to changes in interest rates and, in turn, in equity prices.
The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or they taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace.