| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% |
| Year over Year | 10.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
Highlights
Canadian manufacturing sales rose 4.2 percent in April to $77.1 billion in April, below the 4.6 percent Econoday consensus but still marking a second consecutive strong monthly gain following March's 3.4 percent increase. Sales increased across 17 of 21 subsectors, led by a 22.6 percent gain in petroleum and coal to a record $11.8 billion (up 77.1 percent year-over-year) following 25.5 percent in March.
Excluding petroleum and coal products, total manufacturing sales increased 1.4 percent on the month.
New orders rose 2.1 percent and unfilled orders 1.3 percent, suggesting further momentum ahead.
With inventories up just 0.5 percent on the month, the inventory-to-sales ratio declined to 1.62 in April from 1.68 in March, the lowest since January 2023.
The increase in petroleum and coal sales was driven primarily by higher volumes, up 17.5 percent. Several refineries increased production following maintenance shutdowns in March. The Strait of Hormuz remained closed over the month.
While the increase in petroleum and coal was driven by volumes, the overall 4.2 percent gain in manufacturing sales owed much to higher prices as sales volumes were up 1.8 percent. in fact, the capacity utilization rate (not seasonally adjusted) for the total manufacturing sector declined to 80.6 percent in April from 81.8 percent in March.
Food products were also among noticeable upward contributors, with sales up 2.9 percent on the month (2.4 percent in volume).
By contrast, primary metal sales fell 4.6 percent, following a 0.7 percent decline in March. Transportation equipment also contracted, by 0.5 percent on the month, with motor vehicles down 6.3 percent. Manufacturing sales excluding motor vehicles, parts and accessories increased 4.7 percent.
Regionally, sales increased across seven provinces, with the largest gain in oil-rich Alberta, where sales were up 16.7 percent.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus agrees with the Stats Canada preliminary forecast calling for a big 4.6 percent increase in April after increasing 3.0 percent in March.
Definition
Manufacturing sales for twenty-one reporting industries are the Canadian dollar level of factory shipments for manufacturing durable and nondurable goods. Volume figures are also provided. The sales statistics form part of a wide monthly report that encompasses information on new orders, backlogs and inventories and is a key input into forecasts of monthly gross domestic product (GDP).
Description
Manufacturer's shipments represent the monetary level of factory shipments for durable and nondurable goods and are a relevant indicator for an export-oriented economy. The data are used by analysts to evaluate the economic health of manufacturing industries. They are also used as inputs to GDP and needless to say, these data are used by the central bank in its decision-making process.
The monthly survey of manufacturing of which shipments is a part, provides a broad look at manufacturing activity levels. The level of activity in manufacturing can be affected by the level of interest rates which slows or stimulates the demand for goods and production. Shipments are an indication of how busy factories have been as manufacturers work to fill orders. The data not only provide insight to demand for items such as refrigerators and cars, but also business investment such as industrial machinery, electrical machinery and computers. Because a large proportion of shipments are headed south of the border to the U.S. and include a wide variety of durables, shipments are affected by U.S. economic activity as well as the exchange rate. Although the focus in this report is on shipments, it also contains information on inventories and new and unfilled orders.
Results from this survey are used by both the private and public sectors including finance departments of the federal and provincial governments, the Bank of Canada, Industry Canada, the System of National Accounts, the manufacturing community, consultants and research organizations in Canada, the United States and abroad.