| Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.4% |
| Year over Year | 3.5% | -1.7% | -1.4% |
Highlights
While manufacturing sales increased 3.0 percent in March to $73.6 billion, their highest level since January 2025, details show a more modest performance than the headline suggests.
From a sector standpoint, gains were concentrated in 9 of 21 subsectors, with much of the advance owing to a 22.7 percent gain in petroleum and coal products to $9.4 billion, the highest level since September 2023. Excluding this subsector, sales rose just 0.7 percent in March.
Transportation equipment also supported sales in March, with a 6.0 percent increase, including a 15.0 percent gain in motor vehicles. Manufacturing sales excluding motor vehicles, parts and accessories were up 2.4 percent on the month and 4.6 percent year-over-year.
Sales also benefited from a price effect, as volumes increased 1.0 percent from February, and even contracted 1.4 percent from a year earlier, while nominal sales were up 3.5 percent year-over-year. The price effect was particularly strong in the petroleum and coal sector as the Middle East conflict continues and the Strait of Hormuz remained virtually closed in March, disrupting energy supply worldwide. While nominal sales of petroleum and coal products increased by over 20 percent as prices for energy and petroleum were up 27.4 percent, volumes were down 3.5 percent. Petroleum product sales increased 4.9 percent in the first quarter, when exports of refined petroleum energy products rose 14.4 percent.
Overall, manufacturing sales edged up 0.1 percent in the first quarter and the sector remains highly exposed to the outcome of the upcoming review of Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, a top source of uncertainty for the Bank of Canada monetary policy.
Looking ahead, new orders were up 4.7 percent in March and unfilled orders up 2.4 percent, pointing to further manufacturing sales gains.
Inventories increased 1.3 percent, much slower than sales, lowering the inventory-to-sale ratio to 1.69 from 1.72 in February, the lowest level since September 2025.
The unadjusted capacity utilization rate was up 5.3 percentage points to 82.2 percent in March, with durable manufacturing up 6.6 points to 82.1 percent and non-durable up 4.0 points to 82.4 percent.
Definition
Manufacturing sales for twenty-one reporting industries are the Canadian dollar level of factory shipments for manufacturing durable and nondurable goods. Volume figures are also provided. The sales statistics form part of a wide monthly report that encompasses information on new orders, backlogs and inventories and is a key input into forecasts of monthly gross domestic product (GDP).
Description
Manufacturer's shipments represent the monetary level of factory shipments for durable and nondurable goods and are a relevant indicator for an export-oriented economy. The data are used by analysts to evaluate the economic health of manufacturing industries. They are also used as inputs to GDP and needless to say, these data are used by the central bank in its decision-making process.
The monthly survey of manufacturing of which shipments is a part, provides a broad look at manufacturing activity levels. The level of activity in manufacturing can be affected by the level of interest rates which slows or stimulates the demand for goods and production. Shipments are an indication of how busy factories have been as manufacturers work to fill orders. The data not only provide insight to demand for items such as refrigerators and cars, but also business investment such as industrial machinery, electrical machinery and computers. Because a large proportion of shipments are headed south of the border to the U.S. and include a wide variety of durables, shipments are affected by U.S. economic activity as well as the exchange rate. Although the focus in this report is on shipments, it also contains information on inventories and new and unfilled orders.
Results from this survey are used by both the private and public sectors including finance departments of the federal and provincial governments, the Bank of Canada, Industry Canada, the System of National Accounts, the manufacturing community, consultants and research organizations in Canada, the United States and abroad.