| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | 3.8% | 3.5% to 3.8% | 3.6% | -3.0% | -3.1% |
| Year over Year | -1.7% | -5.7% | -5.6% |
Highlights
Manufacturing sales rebounded 3.6 percent in February, more than recovering the 3.1 percent drop in January despite the weaker performance than the 3.8 percent increase expected by forecasters in an Econoday survey.
Manufacturing sales last expanded as much in September 2026, which was surpassed in March 2022 (4.1 percent). Sales were still down 1.7 percent year-over-year.
The gain in February was largely due to stronger activity, as volumes were up 3.4 percent on the month.
Looking ahead, data points to further improvement as new orders rebounded 6.7 percent after contracting 3.2 percent in January, and unfilled orders were up 2.3 percent, the largest gain since June 2025 and the fourth consecutive monthly increase.
Inventories rose 0.6 percent in February, when the inventory-to-sales ratio came down to 1.71 from 1.76 in January.
Consistent with rebounding sales, the manufacturing capacity utilization rate (unadjusted) increased to 77.1 percent in February from 75.4 percent in January.
Sales were up in 12 of 21 subsectors in February, led by gains of 18.8 percent in transportation equipment after dropping 18.4 percent in January, 7.7 percent in machinery, an indication of business investment activity, and 4.9 percent in primary metals, which reached a record high of $6.5 billion. Real primary metals sales rose 9.2 percent, the largest monthly increase since January 2021.
On the downside, chemical products declined 3.2 percent and petroleum and coal decreased 1.0 percent.
Regionally, sales were up in six provinces, led by Ontario.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Forecasters agree with the Stats Canada preliminary estimate calling for sales to rebound by 3.8 percent on the month in February after dropping 3.0 percent in January.
Definition
Manufacturing sales for twenty-one reporting industries are the Canadian dollar level of factory shipments for manufacturing durable and nondurable goods. Volume figures are also provided. The sales statistics form part of a wide monthly report that encompasses information on new orders, backlogs and inventories and is a key input into forecasts of monthly gross domestic product (GDP).
Description
Manufacturer's shipments represent the monetary level of factory shipments for durable and nondurable goods and are a relevant indicator for an export-oriented economy. The data are used by analysts to evaluate the economic health of manufacturing industries. They are also used as inputs to GDP and needless to say, these data are used by the central bank in its decision-making process.
The monthly survey of manufacturing of which shipments is a part, provides a broad look at manufacturing activity levels. The level of activity in manufacturing can be affected by the level of interest rates which slows or stimulates the demand for goods and production. Shipments are an indication of how busy factories have been as manufacturers work to fill orders. The data not only provide insight to demand for items such as refrigerators and cars, but also business investment such as industrial machinery, electrical machinery and computers. Because a large proportion of shipments are headed south of the border to the U.S. and include a wide variety of durables, shipments are affected by U.S. economic activity as well as the exchange rate. Although the focus in this report is on shipments, it also contains information on inventories and new and unfilled orders.
Results from this survey are used by both the private and public sectors including finance departments of the federal and provincial governments, the Bank of Canada, Industry Canada, the System of National Accounts, the manufacturing community, consultants and research organizations in Canada, the United States and abroad.