| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Employment - M/M | 18,000 | 15,000 to 40,000 | 14,100 | -83,900 |
| Unemployment Rate | 6.8% | 6.6% to 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
Highlights
The Canadian economy added 14,100 jobs in March, slightly below expectations that had centered on 18,000 in an Econoday survey of forecasters. The unemployment rate remained stable at 6.7 percent, below the 6.8 percent consensus, with a participation rate also unchanged at 64.9 percent.
The report illustrates the conundrum faced by the Bank of Canada as geopolitical forces are putting both upward pressure on prices and downward pressure on activity.
Signaling ongoing labor market softness, March employment gains were concentrated in part-time positions, up 15,200, while full-time employment was down 1,100.
At the same time, average hourly wage growth accelerated to 4.7 percent year-over-year from 3.9 percent in February, the highest growth rate since October 2024 and an unwelcome development for the central bank. Between January 2025 and february 2026, the growth rate had remained between 3.2 percent and 3.9 percent. Statistics Canada attributed recent increases to a shift in the composition of employment.
The private sector added 15,400 jobs in March, and the public sector 4,600. The number of employees rose 19,900 while self-employment was down 5,800.
The employment increase in March was led by goods-producing industries, up 12,500, with gains across all major categories except agriculture, which was down 5,000. Natural resources recorded the largest advance, of 10,300, followed by construction (4,000) and manufacturing (2,500).
Employment in services was up just 1,700 on the month, led by services excluding public administration, up 15,100. Professional, scientific and technical services were up 12,100, and information, culture and recreation, up 8,800.
By contrast, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing employment decreased 11,200, accommodation and food services were down 10,000, business, building and other support services down 9,500, and educational services down 7,200. Employment also declined in wholesale and retail trade, by 6,700.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
After two months of big losses, employment is expected to rebound by 18,000 for March but unemployment seen ticking up to 6.8 percent from 6.7 percent.
Definition
The Labour Force Survey is a key economic indicator giving an overall picture of employment and unemployment. Employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation's business and government establishments. The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force.
Description
As in the U.S., this report is used as an indicator of the health of the domestic economy. Employment trends and break-downs by industry groups highlight the strength in job creation and the implications for future sectoral activity. The unemployment rate is used as an indicator of tightness in labor markets and can foreshadow a future increase in wages. Labor force data provide investors with the earliest signs of industry performance. While other data are produced with a month or two delay, these data are available only a week to 10 days after the end of the latest month. Reactions can be dramatic - especially when the result is unanticipated.
The information in the report is invaluable for investors. By looking at employment trends in the various sectors, investors can take more strategic control of their portfolio. If employment in certain industries is growing, there could be investment opportunities in the firms within that industry.
The bond market will rally (fall) when the employment situation shows weakness (strength). The equity market often rallies with the bond market on weak data because low interest rates are good for stocks. But sometimes the two markets move in opposite directions. After all, a healthy labor market should be favorable for the stock market because it supports economic growth and corporate profits. At the same time, bond traders are more concerned about the potential for inflationary pressures.
The unemployment rate rises during cyclical downturns and falls during periods of rapid economic growth. A rising unemployment rate is associated with a weak or contracting economy and declining interest rates. Conversely, a decreasing unemployment rate is associated with an expanding economy and potentially rising interest rates. The fear is that wages will accelerate if the unemployment rate becomes too low and workers are hard to find.