| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | 0.2% | 0.1% to 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Year over Year | 2.0% | 1.7% |
Highlights
Supported by services, Canada's economy proved more resilient than expected in June, as the GDP maintained a monthly growth pace of 0.3 percent while forecasters in an Econoday survey had expected a slowdown to 0.2 percent.
Advance estimates for July point to a loss of momentum with a flat GDP.
Despite the higher-than-expected headline number, the impact of the trade tensions and ongoing war in the Middle East was evident in goods-producing industries, which contracted 0.1 percent on the month after rising 0.6 percent in May and 1.5 percent in April.
Mining quarrying, and oil and gas extraction was down 0.6 percent, utilities down 1.1 percent, and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting down 0.3 percent. Energy output contracted 1.1 percent in June. Gains of 0.6 percent in manufacturing and 0.3 percent in construction brought some offset. Within manufacturing, the increase was entirely led by a 1.4 percent expansion in durables, while non-durable manufacturing decreased 0.3 percent. Advance estimates for July point to a decrease in manufacturing.
In June, activity expanded in 13 of 20 industrial sectors, led by a 0.4 percent gain in services, twice as fast as in May, led by increases of 1.7 percent in wholesale trade and 1.4 percent in retail trade. Preliminary data point to a weaker retail trade performance in July. Within wholesale trade, activity in machinery, equipment and supplies was at its highest since February 2025, owing to a 3.3 percent increase, an encouraging sign for investment activity.
Activity in the public sector also supported the economy in June, with a 0.3 percent expansion led by public administration, which was up 0.7 percent, marking the fourth consecutive increase. Activity related to the 2026 Census boosted federal government public administration excluding defense. Defense services were up 0.9 percent.
With Canada hosting the FIFA World Cup, information and cultural industries were up 0.4 percent in June, and entertainment and recreation expanded 1.1 percent.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
GDP expected up 0.2 percent in June after 0.3 percent in May.
Definition
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. In contrast to most industrialised countries a monthly estimate is provided derived from the value added by labour and capital in transforming inputs purchased from other producers into that industry's output. Data for the reference month are usually released close to the end of the second month after the reference period.
Description
Instead of producing an advanced quarterly GDP figure and revising it the following two months, Statistics Canada releases monthly estimates of real GDP at Basic Prices. This release breaks down real output by seven goods-producing industries and twelve service-producing industries, and includes special aggregations such as business sector, non-business sector, and industrial production.
The sources of data used for monthly and quarterly estimates often differ and leads to very different estimates for certain items, such as price deflators. As a result, the monthly figures are not perfectly correlated with the quarterly numbers. However, the monthly data do give some idea of where the quarter is headed and especially in an uncertain environment, they are closely watched. While industrial production is closely watched in the U.S., it is not in Canada especially since the economy has become increasingly dominated by services. However, the goods sector is more vulnerable to wide swings in output compared to services, and exports remain dominated by industrial output.