| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | 0.1% | 0.0% to 0.1% | -0.1% | 0.2% | |
| Year over Year | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% |
Highlights
Canada's GDP growth ended the first quarter on a negative note as it contracted 0.1 percent in March from February, while forecasters in an Econoday survey had expected a 0.1 percent increase.
After declining 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025, GDP by industry edged up 0.1 percent in the first quarter of this year as a 0.4 percent decrease in goods-producing industries more than offset a 0.3 percent gain in services.
Preliminary estimates for April point to a 0.4 percent GDP rebound, led by increases in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, manufacturing and transportation and warehousing. The advance estimate points to a decline in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting.
In March, goods-producing industries were down 0.8 percent despite a 0.4 percent expansion in manufacturing. Non-durable manufacturing was up 1.5 percent, more than offsetting a 0.6 percent decrease in durables. Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction was down 2.1 percent, agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting down 1.1 percent, and construction down 0.6 percent. Industrial production declined 0.8 percent from February and energy fell 1.4 percent.
Activity in services edged up 0.1 percent after risng 0.2 percent the previous month. The overall picture was mixed, with wholesale trade up 1.8 percent, arts, entertainment and recreation up 2.0 percent, and public administration up 0.4 percent. Among sectors recording a decline, retail trade contracted 0.6 percent, management of companies and enterprises was down 1.3 percent, and accommodation and food services down 0.4 percent. GDP was essentially flat in five services sectors, including transportation and warehousing.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Forecasters look for GDP up 0.1 percent, topping the Stats Canada 0.0 percent estimate.
Definition
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. In contrast to most industrialised countries a monthly estimate is provided derived from the value added by labour and capital in transforming inputs purchased from other producers into that industry's output. Data for the reference month are usually released close to the end of the second month after the reference period.
Description
Instead of producing an advanced quarterly GDP figure and revising it the following two months, Statistics Canada releases monthly estimates of real GDP at Basic Prices. This release breaks down real output by seven goods-producing industries and twelve service-producing industries, and includes special aggregations such as business sector, non-business sector, and industrial production.
The sources of data used for monthly and quarterly estimates often differ and leads to very different estimates for certain items, such as price deflators. As a result, the monthly figures are not perfectly correlated with the quarterly numbers. However, the monthly data do give some idea of where the quarter is headed and especially in an uncertain environment, they are closely watched. While industrial production is closely watched in the U.S., it is not in Canada especially since the economy has become increasingly dominated by services. However, the goods sector is more vulnerable to wide swings in output compared to services, and exports remain dominated by industrial output.