| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Balance | C$2.3B | C$1.5B to C$2.7B | C$2.721B | C$1.779B | C$1.753B |
| Imports - M/M | 0.3% | -1.6% | -0.2% | ||
| Imports - Y/Y | 7.4% | 2.5% | 4.6% | ||
| Exports - M/M | 1.6% | 8.5% | 10.1% | ||
| Exports - Y/Y | 24.7% | 8.8% | 10.2% |
Highlights
Canada's merchandise trade surplus widened to C$2.721 billion in April from C$1.753 billion in March, the largest surplus since January 2025, as export growth outpaced import growth. Forecasters inan Econoday survey had expected a surplus of C$2.3 billion.
Exports were up 1.6 percent after rising 10.1 percent in March, reaching a record high of C$75.2 billion, with widespread gains across 9 of 11 categories. It was not just higher prices: in a third monthly increase, export volumes were up 3.0 percent.
Energy product exports were up 9.7 percent after 23.4 percent in March, led by higher prices due to the Middle East conflict. By contrast, metal and non-metallic mineral products fell 17.5 percent, led by lower gold shipments to the UK. Excluding these two categories, exports rose 5.1 percent. Most export groups were up, however, incuding motor vehicles and parts (5.9 percent).
Imports, meanwhile, rose 0.3 percent in April to a record C$72.4 billion, with increases across 6 of 11 categories. Volumes increased 0.4 percent. The large upward contribution came from imports of basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products, up 16.9 percent, partly due to higher prices. Elsewhere, imports of basic chemicals were up 13.8 percent, and electronic and electrical equipment and parts increased 4.2 percent. These gains were partly offset by a 12.9 percent decline in metal and non-metallic mineral products.
Regionally, exports to the U.S. rose 4.8 percent, outpacing the 1.6 percent gain in imports, leading to a widening surplus to C$9,5 billion from C$7.8 billion. This was the largest surplus since February 2025.
By contrast, Canada's trade deficit with countries other than the United States widened to C$6.8 billion in April from C$6.0 billion in March. Exports fell 4.8 percent while imports declined 1.5 percent.
When also including services, the international trade surplus with the world widened to C$2.8 billion from C$2.3 billion.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
High oil prices flatter exports to lift the surplus to C$2.3 billion from C$1.8 billion in March.
Definition
The merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade and can offer a guide to an economy's competitiveness. Nominal data are supplied with regards to principal trading partners and product classification.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect currency values in foreign exchange markets. This is particularly true for Canada which relies on exports and particularly those to the U.S. for growth. It should be noted that this report focuses solely on goods trade - it leaves services trade for the quarterly national accounts and balance of payments reports.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods while exports show the demand for Canadian goods in the U.S. and elsewhere. The Canadian dollar is particularly sensitive to changes in its trade balance with the U.S. For the most part, Canada's trade balance is in surplus thanks to its exports to the U.S. Both the nominal export and import values are split into volume (real) and price components. This permits trade data to be analyzed for both changes in trade patterns as well as changing prices. This has been particularly important of late given energy price volatility and the impact on Canada's merchandise shipments. A word of caution -- the data are subject to large monthly revisions. Therefore, it can be misleading to form opinions on the basis of one month's data.
The bond market is sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.