| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Annual Rate | 240,000 | 230,000 to 250,000 | 235,852 | 250,900 | 250,961 |
Highlights
Housing starts decreased 6.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 235,852 in March, below the 240,000 consensus expectation in an Econoday survey of forecasters, after recovering 5.9 percent in February.
The six-month trend was down 2.9 percent to 248,378, also pointing to weakening momentum.
While actual starts in centres with a population of 10,000 or more increased 10 percent year-over-year in March, it was largely due to exceptionally low activity in the first quarter of 2025.
Lack of affordability remains a key issue in Canada.
In an Abacus Data survey, one in five prospective buyers have delayed purchasing a home due to excessively high prices.
The federal government and the Province of Ontario partnered to announce new measures on March 30 to reduce municipal development charges for three years in the province. The HST is also removed for new homes of up to $1 million in Ontario, with a maximum saving of $130,000. It remains to be seen whether these measures will push prospective homebuyers from the sidelines.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Starts expected softer at 240K in March versus 251K in February.
Definition
Released by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the monthly housing starts data capture the annualised number of new residential buildings that began construction during the previous month. Statistics are provided for urban and rural areas, the former with a population of at least 10,000. CMHC estimates the level of starts in centres with a population of less than 10,000 for each of the three months of the quarter, at the beginning of each quarter. During the last month of the quarter, a survey of these centres is conducted and the estimate revised.
Description
Housing starts are a leading indicator of economic health because building construction produces a wide-reaching ripple effect. This narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. Home builders usually don't start a house unless they are fairly confident it will sell upon or before its completion. Changes in the rate of housing starts tell us a lot about demand for homes and the outlook for the construction industry. Furthermore, each time a new home is started, construction employment rises, and income will be pumped back into the economy.
Once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the home builder and a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers and dryers, furniture, and landscaping are just a few things new home buyers might spend money on, so the economic"ripple effect" can be substantial. Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, housing starts have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the housing starts data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders, and home furnishings companies. Commodity prices such as lumber are also very sensitive to housing industry trends.