| Actual | Previous | |
| Adjusted Index | 57.7 | 49.7 |
| Unadjusted Index | 61.5 | 56.5 |
Highlights
Canada's Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) returned to expansionary territory in April, reaching 57.7 after falling to 49.7 in March. Among respondents, 40.4 percent reported higher purchases while 17.4 percent reported a decline.
The PMI Index recovery in April could appear particularly surprising given the Middle East conflict that started at the end of February with U.S. strikes on Iran and the ongoing uncertainty related to the upcoming review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement. Canada, however, is a net oil exporter and does get revenues from higher oil prices. In fact, the Bank of Canada did not make significant changes to its growth forecast in its April Monetary Policy Report. It expects growth to resume after a contraction in the fourth quarter of 2025, with an annualized GDP growth of 1.5 percent in both the first and second quarters of 2026.
"While the war in Iran may alter its composition, overall GDP growth is little changed in the updated forecast," the BoC said."Since Canada is a large net exporter of oil, higher oil prices increase national income even as consumers are squeezed by higher gasoline prices."
The Ivey Price Index did increase to 76.6 in April from 75.7 in March and 63.4 in February, with 62.1 percent of respondents reporting higher prices.
The Ivey PMI Employment component also increased in April, to 54.7 from 51.1, with 27.6 percent of respondents reporting higher employment and 16.6 percent reporting lower employment. The April jobs report is due Friday, with forecasters in an Econoday survey expecting an employment increase between 6,000 and 25,000, with the unemployment rate steady at 6.7 percent.
The Ivey Inventories Index rose to 56.5 from 49.4. The Supplier Deliveries Index was the only one below the 50 threshold despite an increase to 44.3 from 38.8.
The unadjusted PMI Index rose to 61.5 from 56.5.
Definition
The Ivey purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) measures purchasing activity as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers selected geographically and by sector of activity to match the Canadian economy as a whole. The PMI includes both the public and private sectors and is based on month-end data. Five categories are covered in the survey: purchases, employment, inventories, supplier deliveries and prices. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting).
Description
The Ivey PMI is provided in two formats -- unadjusted and seasonally adjusted. The index shows responses to one question:"Were your purchases last month in dollars higher, the same, or lower than the previous month?" A figure above 50 shows an increase while below 50 shows a decrease.
The index measures the month to month variation in economic activity as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers. The index uses end of the month data and it covers all sections of Canada's economy. The PMI includes both the public and private sectors and is based on month end data Ivey PMI panel members indicate whether their organizations activity is higher than, the same as, or lower than the previous month across the following five categories: purchases, employment, inventories, supplier deliveries and prices.