| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | 0.5% | 0.5% to 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Year over Year | 3.3% | 3.3% to 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| HICP - M/M | 0.1% | 0.1% to 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| HICP - Y/Y | 3.2% | 3.2% to 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
Highlights
Italy's consumer price index rose 0.5 percent in August from July, matching the Econoday survey median, while the year-on-year rate accelerated to 3.3 percent from 2.9 percent in July, also in line with the median forecast of 3.3 percent. The final reading confirmed the flash estimate on both counts. Core inflation, which excludes energy and unprocessed food, eased slightly to 1.5 percent year-on-year from 1.6 percent in July, underscoring that the broader pickup in headline inflation was concentrated in a narrower set of categories rather than reflecting broad-based price pressure.
The acceleration in headline inflation was driven primarily by energy. Non-regulated energy prices jumped to 17.0 percent year-on-year from 11.4 percent, while regulated energy prices rose to 18.6 percent from 14.8 percent. Durable goods prices also picked up, to 1.3 percent from 0.7 percent, and unprocessed food inflation edged higher to 3.8 percent from 3.6 percent. Partial offsets came from services, where recreation, repair, and personal-care price growth slowed to 2.6 percent from 3.0 percent, and transport-related services decelerated to 0.8 percent from 1.6 percent.
On a monthly basis, the increase was again led by energy, with regulated energy prices up 3.0 percent and non-regulated energy up 2.9 percent from July. Transport services rose 1.3 percent on the month, and durable goods added 0.5 percent, together accounting for most of the overall 0.5 percent monthly gain.
The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP), which aligns Italian data with the EU methodology, rose 0.1 percent month-on-month, matching the Econoday survey median, but it's worth noting the monthly figure reflects summer sales effects not captured in the national index. On an annual basis, the HICP rose 2.9 percent, down from 3.0 percent in July and slightly below the survey median of 3.2 percent.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus looks for no revision in the final from the flash with CPI up 0.5 percent on the month and 3.3 percent on year.