| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | 0.2% | 0.2% to 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Year over Year | 2.8% | 2.8% to 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| HICP - M/M | -1.0% | -1.0% to -1.0% | -1.0% | -1.0% |
| HICP - Y/Y | 2.9% | 2.9% to 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
Highlights
Consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in July and were 2.9 percent higher than a year ago. Preliminary estimates and the Econoday forecast median were for a 0.2 percent month-on-month and 2.8 percent year-on-year increase.
Prices for unprocessed food declined 1.3 percent in July and were 3.6 percent higher than July of last year while energy prices were up 0.9 percent in July and 11.6 percent higher than a year ago.
Excluding the two above items, prices were up 0.3 percent in July and 1.6 percent above last year’s July reading.
Recreation, sport, and culture saw increases of 0.9 percent month-on-month and 0.8 percent year-on-year, followed by information and communication while rose 0.7 percent month-on-month and was 0.2 percent higher-year-on-year.
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) which uses the same methodology to compare inflation rates across European economies was down 1.0 percent in July and up 2.9 percent year-on-year.
While the headline year-on-year figure is outside the comfort zone of the European Central Bank, the core rate shows that inflation is holding steady for the most part. While no great comfort to those having to pay more for fuel, from the perspective of monetary policy it doesn’t show there is a massive inflation shock for the time being.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus looks for no revision in the final from the flash with CPI up 0.2 percent on the month and 2.8 percent on year.