| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Quarter over Quarter | 0.0% | 0.0% to 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Year over Year | 0.6% | 0.4% to 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% |
Highlights
Italy’s economy expanded by 0.2 percent in the second quarter of 2026 and by 1.0 percent annually, indicating continued but moderate growth. The improvement was driven by services, while industrial and agricultural output declined. This sectoral divergence suggests that economic resilience increasingly depends on services, with weaknesses in production-oriented sectors potentially limiting productivity and export capacity.
The expenditure composition presents a mixed picture. Domestic demand, including inventory changes, contributed positively, suggesting improved internal economic activity. However, because inventories are included, the increase may partly represent unsold production rather than stronger household consumption or investment. Meanwhile, net exports reduced growth, indicating that imports may have expanded faster than exports or that foreign demand weakened.
The estimated 0.8 percent carry-over growth means that annual GDP would increase by approximately this rate even if output stagnated during the remainder of 2026. Nevertheless, the three additional working days in 2026 could strengthen unadjusted annual growth without representing greater underlying productivity.
In essence, Italy’s expansion remains resilient but uneven. Sustainable growth requires stronger industrial performance, productive investment and export competitiveness alongside continued service-sector momentum. These latest updates take the RPI to minus 4 and the RPI-P to 19, meaning that economic activities are now within the expectations of the Italian economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
GDP expected flat in Q2 from Q1 after rising 0.3 percent in Q1 from Q4.