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CN: Industrial Production
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | 0.05% | 0.28% | ||
| Year over Year | 6.0% | 5.5% to 6.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% |
Highlights
Chinese industrial production rose 4.1 percent on the year in April, slowing from growth of 5.7 percent in March and well below the consensus forecast of 6.0 percent. In month-over-month terms, output rose 0.05 percent after a previous increase of 0.28 percent. Officials also adjusted their policy guidance today.
In their statement accompanying today's data, officials characterised the data as showing the economy has"maintained the steady and upward growth momentum". Although officials did not explicitly refer to the Iran conflict, they cautioned that the external environment is"complex and volatile" and again referred to an imbalance between strong supply and weak demand.
Officials today pledged to"implement a more proactive fiscal policy and an appropriately accommodative monetary policy", in contrast to the previous guidance which promised"more proactive and effective macro policies". This could indicate that changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term, with the monthly review of the the loan prime rate later this week providing an opportunity for officials to make monetary policy somewhat more accommodative.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus looks for output up a bit to 6.0 percent increase on year from 5.7 percent in March.
Definition
Industrial production measures the change in the total inflation adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines and utilities. Data are compared with the same month a year earlier.
Description
Chinese data can have a broad impact on the currency markets due to China's dominant influence on the global economy and investor sentiment. It's a leading indicator of economic health. Production is the dominant driver of the economy and reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle. No data are published in February for January.
The industrial growth rate is used to reflect a certain period of increase or decrease in volume of industrial production indicators. The indicator can be used to estimate the short term trend of the industrial economy, to judge the extent of the economic boom and also to be an important reference and basis for the formulation and adjustment of economic policies.