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CN: Industrial Production
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | 0.83% | 0.49% | ||
| Year over Year | 5.0% | 5.0% to 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% |
Highlights
Chinese industrial production rose 6.3 percent on the year for February and March combined, picking up from growth of 5.2 percent in December and above the consensus forecast of 5.0 percent. Separate year-over-year data for February and March are not published because of the impact of differences in the timing of lunar new year holidays from year to year. In month-over-month terms, industrial production rose 0.83 percent in February.
Within the industrial sector, manufacturing output rose 6.6 percent on the year for February and March combined. Utilities output and mining output rose 4.7 percent and 6.1 percent on the year respectively.
In their statement accompanying today's data, officials characterised the data as showing the economy has"got off to a robust and promising start" in 2026, but expressed caution about the evolving external environment. Although the statement contained no explicit reference to the Iran conflict and its potential impact on the Chinese economy, officials noted that geopolitical risks are rising. Officials pledged to"adopt more proactive and effective macro policies" but provided no specific guidance about whether additional changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.
Data published today were generally stronger than consensus forecasts. The China's RPI rose from plus 9 to plus 12 while the RPI-P rose from minus 8 to minus 3, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are now coming in close to consensus forecasts.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus sees output growth pretty steady, up 5.0 percent on year the January-February after rising 5.2 percent in December.
Definition
Industrial production measures the change in the total inflation adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines and utilities. Data are compared with the same month a year earlier.
Description
Chinese data can have a broad impact on the currency markets due to China's dominant influence on the global economy and investor sentiment. It's a leading indicator of economic health. Production is the dominant driver of the economy and reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle. No data are published in February for January.
The industrial growth rate is used to reflect a certain period of increase or decrease in volume of industrial production indicators. The indicator can be used to estimate the short term trend of the industrial economy, to judge the extent of the economic boom and also to be an important reference and basis for the formulation and adjustment of economic policies.