| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | 0.81% | -0.12% | ||
| Year over Year | 2.1% | 1.1% to 4.4% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
Highlights
Chinese retail sales rose 2.8 percent on the year for February and March combined, up from growth of 3.7 percent in December and above the consensus forecast of 2.1 percent. Separate data for February and March are not published because of the impact of differences in the timing of lunar new year holidays from year to year. In month-over-month terms, retail sales rose 0.81 percent in February.
In their statement accompanying today's data, officials characterised the data as showing the economy has"got off to a robust and promising start" in 2026, but expressed caution about the evolving external environment. Although the statement contained no explicit reference to the Iran conflict and its potential impact on the Chinese economy, officials noted that geopolitical risks are rising. Officials pledged to"adopt more proactive and effective macro policies" but provided no specific guidance about whether additional changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.
Data published today were generally stronger than consensus forecasts. The China's RPI rose from plus 9 to plus 12 while the RPI-P rose from minus 8 to minus 3, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are now coming in close to consensus forecasts.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
A bit of a pickup expected with retail sales up 2.1 percent on year versus only 0.9 percent in December.
Definition
Retail Sales measure goods that are sold to the consumer or end-user, generally in small quantities and in the state in which they were purchased by the retailer. China's retail sales are reported monthly. The critical value is the change from the same month in the previous year.
Description
Retail sales tend to have a muted impact because the Chinese economy is not heavily reliant on consumer spending. However, the government is trying to stimulate consumer spending to give the economy more balance. To this end, the government put into place a basket of stimulus measures, including government subsidies and tax breaks for home appliances and cars, to expand consumption to sustain the economic growth, which was slowed by a slump in exports amid the global economic downturn.