| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | -0.12% | -0.42% | ||
| Year over Year | 1.0% | 0.8% to 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.3% |
Highlights
Chinese retail sales rose 0.9 percent on the year in December, slowing sharply from growth of 2.9 percent in November and just below the consensus forecast of 1.0 percent. In month-over-month terms, retail sales fell 0.12 percent in December after falling 0.42 percent in November.
In their statement accompanying today's data, officials characterised the data as showing the economy"sustained momentum of steady progress in 2025 despite multiple pressures". Although officials refrained from explicitly referring to trade tensions with the United States, they noted that"the impact of changes in the external environment is growing". Officials reiterated their commitment to"more proactive and effective macro policies" but provided no specific guidance about whether changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.
Data published today were mixed relative to consensus forecasts. The China's RPI and RPI-P rose from minus 9 and minus 8 to plus 12 and minus 3 respectively, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are coming in close to consensus forecasts.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Forecasters expect sales up a very modest 1.0 percent on year after an already unimpressive 1.3 percent in November.
Definition
Retail Sales measure goods that are sold to the consumer or end-user, generally in small quantities and in the state in which they were purchased by the retailer. China's retail sales are reported monthly. The critical value is the change from the same month in the previous year.
Description
Retail sales tend to have a muted impact because the Chinese economy is not heavily reliant on consumer spending. However, the government is trying to stimulate consumer spending to give the economy more balance. To this end, the government put into place a basket of stimulus measures, including government subsidies and tax breaks for home appliances and cars, to expand consumption to sustain the economic growth, which was slowed by a slump in exports amid the global economic downturn.