| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Quarter over Quarter | 1.4% | 0.8% to 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% |
| Year over Year | 4.8% | 4.6% to 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% |
Highlights
China's GDP rose 1.3 percent on the quarter in the three months to March, up slightly from growth of 1.2 percent in the three months to December, with year-over-year growth picking up from 4.5 percent to 5.0 percent. Monthly activity data also published today showed solid but slower growth in industrial production, retail sales, and investment in March.
In their statement accompanying today's data, officials characterised the data as showing the economy"got off to a good start" in 2026. Although officials did not explicitly refer to the Iran conflict, they cautioned that the external environment is"becoming more complex and volatile" and again referred to an imbalance between strong supply and weak demand. Although they again pledged to"implement more proactive and effective macro policies", officials provided no specific guidance about whether changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Moderate growth is the call with GDP up 4.8 percent on year in Q1 versus 4.5 percent in Q4.
Definition
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) refers to the final products at market prices produced by all resident units in a country (or a region) during a certain period of time. GDP is the core indicator of the national accounts, and also an important indicator to measure the economic conditions and the level of development of a country or region. GDP is calculated from three approaches -- production, income and expenditure -- which reflect gross domestic product and its composition from different angles.
Description
GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. The GDP report contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.
The data are compiled by NBS and the People's Bank of China (PBoC). Estimates for non-financial corporations, financial corporations, general government, household and the rest of the world sectors are published. The production accounts, distribution and use of income account, and capital account data are compiled by NBS. NBS also develops the financial account by rearranging financial transactions data in the flow of funds accounts compiled by PBoC. There are no breakdowns of government consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, change in inventories and net exports. Household consumption expenditures are broken down into urban and rural. The income components of GDP are only published in the input-output tables. NBS uses the Chinese Industrial Classification of the National Economy.