| Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | 0.8% | -0.2% |
| Year over Year | 3.7% | -0.1% |
Highlights
Retail sales increased a seasonally adjusted 0.8 percent in March from February, in nominal terms while gaining 3.7 percent from March of last year. On a volume basis, sales rose 2.1 percent, implying inflation of 1.6 percent year-on-year in March.
The biggest gains were for computers and telecommunications equipment which saw a year-on-year increase of 8.6 percent followed by tools with a 5.6 percent gain and household appliances of 4.6 percent.
Among methods of distribution, online sales showed the largest increase with a year-on-year increase of 11.2 percent. Large stores reported a 3.7 percent gain, while small-scale stores saw a 3.1 percent gain.
During the first quarter, sales rose 0.2 percent over the prior three-month period on a seasonally adjusted volume basis and were 1.0 percent higher than the comparable year-ago quarter. This should have a slightly positive effect on first quarter GDP.
The increase in sales is a welcome one but comes with a caveat. It could be that consumers, like businesses, were accelerating their purchasing due to the conflict in the Middle East in order to get ahead of further anticipated price increases.
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The headline data are expressed in nominal terms but volume statistics are also available. Autos are excluded. Only a very limited breakdown of subsector performance is available in the first report but much greater detail is provided in the following month's release. The Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) is the main producer of official statistics in Italy.
Description
With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Retail sales are a measure of consumer well-being. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.