| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Month over Month | 0.8% | 0.6% to 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| Year over Year | 1.6% | 1.6% to 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% |
| HICP - M/M | 0.5% | 0.6% | ||
| HICP - Y/Y | 1.5% | 1.6% |
Highlights
Italy's February 2026 inflation reflects a clear shift from energy-driven disinflation to service-led price pressures. Headline inflation rose to 1.5 percent year-over-year, from 1.0 percent the previous month, signalling a gradual reacceleration. The monthly increase of 0.7 percent further indicates short-term price momentum.
The underlying dynamics reveal a structural divergence. Services inflation has strengthened significantly, rising to 3.6 percent, driven by transport (2.9 percent) and recreation/personal care (4.9 percent). This suggests resilient domestic demand, particularly in discretionary and mobility-related consumption. In contrast, goods inflation remains subdued at minus 0.2 percent, reflecting continued price weakness in tangible products.
Energy prices continue to exert a strong disinflationary effect, with both regulated (minus 11.6 percent) and non-regulated (minus 6.2 percent) components declining further. However, this downward pressure is increasingly offset by rising food prices, especially unprocessed food (3.7 percent), indicating renewed supply-side or seasonal pressures. Core inflation's jump to 2.4 percent emphasizes persistent underlying inflation, independent of volatile energy components.
The widening servicesgoods inflation gap (3.8 percentage points) suggests that services are driving inflation while goods remain weak. In summary, Italy appears to be transitioning into a more demand-driven inflation environment, with services now at the centre of price dynamics. These updates leave the RPI at 9, but takes the RPI-P to 58, meaning that adjusted for prices, economic activities are outperforming market expectations in Italy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus forecast sees no revision from the preliminary gains of 0.8 percent on month and 1.6 percent on year in the February final.
Definition
The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI provide widely used measures of inflation. A provisional estimate, with limited detail, is released about two weeks before the final data are reported.
Description
The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as the Italy where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, Italy's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.
Italy like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is usually the preferred indicator of short-term inflation pressures.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.