| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | 1.3% | -0.7% to 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% |
| Year over Year | 1.7% | 0.2% to 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% |
Highlights
Japanese retail sales posted a solid 2.1% rise on year in April, propped up by continued demand for clothing and luxury goods at department stores, the recent pickup in vehicle purchases, and strong drugs/cosmetics sales, offsetting the effects of falling fuel prices caused by subsides aimed at alleviating the drag from the Mideast conflict.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry maintained its assessment after upgrading it in the January report, saying retail sales are on a gradual uptrend. It noted the three-month moving average rose 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.6% in March and being flat in February.
Industry data released this week showed department store sales posted the fourth straight year-on-year increase in April, up 5.2%, after rising 3.2% in March, led by solid demand for spring clothing and high-end watches and jewelries. Sales to visitors from overseas marked their second straight year-on-year gain as the yen remained weak, pushing up their purchasing power. Some Chinese tourists continued boycotting Japan over bilateral diplomatic rows but the pace of decline in sales to customers from China eased to about 2% in April from 20% previously while spending by visitors from Taiwan, South Korea and Southeast Asia more than offset the decrease.
Details:
Japan Apr retail sales +2.1% y/y (Mar revised to +1.4% from +1.7%); 2nd straight rise; median forecast +1.7% (range: +0.2% to +3.1%)
Japan Apr retail sales +1.3% m/m (Mar revised to +1.0% from +1.3%); median forecast +1.3% (range: -0.7% to +2.2%)
Japan METI maintains view: retail sales on gradual uptrend
Japan Apr retail sales y/y rise led by auto, appliances, department store, drugs/cosmetics
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Japanese retail sales are expected to rise for a second consecutive month on the year in April, maintaining momentum from the previous month amid strong automobile and department store sales, as well as continued solid demand for drugs and cosmetics.
Retail sales are expected to rise 1.7 percent from a year earlier in April after a revised 1.4 percent gain in March from the initial 1.7 percent increase. On a month-over-month basis, sales are seen rising 1.3 percent compared with a revised 1.0 percent gain in March from the original 1.3 percent increase.
Sales at major domestic department stores increased in April, while auto sales are also expected to grow as new passenger car registrations accelerated during the month. Meanwhile, fuel sales are seen declining, weighed down by lower gasoline prices due to government subsidies aimed at capping fuel costs amid elevated energy prices stemming from military tensions in the Middle East.
In the survey released in late April, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry maintained its assessment after upgrading it the previous month, saying retail sales were “on a gradual uptrend.”
Definition
Retail Sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The data are part of the Preliminary Report on the Current Survey of Commerce.
Description
Another way to look at consumer spending in addition to the household spending survey is through the retail sales report. This report gives the total value of goods and services sold each month at retail outlets. The preferred number is the change from the previous year. The report serves as a direct gauge of consumption and consumer confidence. Consumer spending is one of the most important leading indicators for the Japanese economy. Increasing sales signal consumer confidence and economic growth, but higher consumption also leads to inflationary pressures.