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JP: Industrial Production
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | 0.7% | -1.0% to 2.5% | -2.1% | -2.0% |
| Year over Year | 3.0% | 0.0% to 5.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Japan’s industrial output is expected to rebound in March, marking the first monthly increase in two months as the impact of Middle East geopolitical tensions appears limited and there are signs that exports picked up during the month.
Industrial production is seen rising 0.7 percent on the month in March after a revised 2.0 percent drop in February, compared with an initial 2.1 percent decline. The February contraction was initially driven by declines in trucks, engines, aluminum products and liquid crystal display panels. The subsequent upward revision reflected increases in pharmaceuticals and auto parts, while output in the food and tobacco industries fell.
On a year-on-year basis, output is expected to rise for a fourth consecutive month in March, increasing 3.0 percent after a revised 0.4 percent gain in February (initially 0.3 percent).
Separate data from the Ministry of Finance released on April 22 showed that Japan’s export values rose 11.7 percent y/y in March, marking a seventh straight increase and broadly in line with expectations. Exports reached a record ¥11.00 trillion, surpassing the previous high of ¥10.41 trillion set in December 2025.
Definition
Industrial Production measures the physical output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities. Factories manufacture various products, and the industrial production indexes have been prepared as a comprehensive indicator of wide-ranging production activities for such products and are regarded as some of the most important among economic indexes.
Description
Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that won't lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.
Industrial production provides key industry data for this export-dependent economy. The data are issued twice a month-a preliminary estimate at the end of the month for the preceding month and a revised estimate about two weeks later. All products, whether sold domestically or abroad, are included in the calculation of industrial production. Industrial production is highly sensitive to the business cycle and can often predict future changes in employment, earnings and income. For these reasons industrial production is considered a reliable leading indicator that conveys information about the overall health of the economy. This report has a big influence on market behavior. In any given month, one can see whether capital goods or consumer goods are growing more rapidly. Are manufacturers still producing construction supplies and other materials? This detailed report shows which sectors of the economy are growing and which are not.