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CH: KOF Swiss Leading Indicator
| Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Index | 96.1 | 104.2 | 103,8 |
Highlights
Economic sentiment fell in March to 96.1 to is at its lowest level since June of last year, while the previous months result was revised down to 103.8 from 104.2. It is evident the conflict in the Middle East is weighing on the outlook.
Particularly hard-hit were manufacturing and foreign demand, with exports also coming under pressure, and a bad sign for the export-dependent Swiss economy. Other manufacturing sectors were also weakening.
Food, and beverages improved slightly, which is not an unusual development for an economy facing headwinds.
It comes as no surprise that sentiment is deteriorating amid the uncertainty of the conflict, with on again, off again headlines regarding a cease-fire.
Definition
The KOF Economic Indicator is a composite leading indicator that aims to identify shifts in the Swiss business cycle around three months ahead of the actual event and, until the start of 2014, was based on twenty-five different economic indicators. The old version of the KOF Economic Indicator used the previous year's GDP growth rate published by the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) as a yardstick. The revised measure still incorporates SECO data; however, KOF has changed over to month-on-month changes in GDP which are generated via statistical methods. This reference series is not about exact GDP figures but about the direction and strength of the economic trend. The new objective of the Barometer is the same as the old objective: achieving maximum possible accuracy in predicting the Swiss business cycle.
Description
The indicator measures overall economic activity through a qualitative business survey about developments in the recent past, the current situation and expectations for the next three to six months. Getting an accurate handle on where the economy is headed is inevitably a vital element in all investment decisions and the new measure uses some 219 variables in order to do just that. The set of variables will be reviewed every autumn.
Survey questions relate to production, orders and stocks of finished goods. The KOF Swiss Economic Institute publishes this indicator monthly.