US: USDA Supply/Demand - Wheat

Highlights

WHEAT:
The USDA showed 2025/26 US ending stocks at 926 million bushels, the top end of the estimate range. The average estimate was 896 million bushels, and the range was 851-926 million. This is up from 901 million in December. World ending stocks for 2025/26 were above the range of estimates at 278.3 million tonnes. The average estimate was 276 million and a range of 274.9-277.7 million tonnes. It was also higher than the 274.9 million estimated in December. The Winter Wheat Seedings report showed 2026 all winter plantings at 32.99 million acres versus the estimated 32.4 million acres and 33.2 million acres in 2025. The range of estimates was 31 to 33.4 million acres. Hard red acreage was 23.5 million, versus an estimated 23 million. 2025 plantings were 23.49 million. Soft red acreage was 6.14 million versus 5.9 million estimated and 6.14 million in 2025. White wheat acreage was 3.36 million versus 3.5 million estimated and 3.53 million in 2025. Quarterly Grain Stocks reported December 1 all wheat stocks at 1.675 billion bushels, versus an average expectation of 1.637 billion bushels and a range of 1.573-1.738 billion. December 1 stocks last year were 1.573 billion. On-farm stocks were 446 million bushels, down from 467 million a year ago. Off-farm stocks were 1.229 billion bushels, higher than 1.106 billion in 2024.

PRICE OUTLOOK:
The report can be considered bearish on higher ending stocks for the US and world, slightly larger wheat seedings than expected, and quarterly stocks coming in above the average guess. The US balance sheet featured minimal changes but a minor cut to feed and residual raised ending stocks. Global supplies remain bearish, and the market reaction to the report has been negative. But mildly so, and wheat may hold up better than corn and beans due to the significant managed money short position. There is no bull story, but bouts of short covering are likely.

Definition

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is prepared monthly and includes forecasts for U.S. and world wheat, rice, and coarse grains (corn, barley, sorghum, and oats), oilseeds (soybeans, rapeseed, palm), and cotton. U.S. coverage is extended to sugar, meat, poultry, eggs, and milk. USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board analysts chair the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees (ICECs) comprising representatives from several key USDA agencies. The nine ICECs- one for each commodity- compile and interpret information from USDA and other domestic and foreign official sources to produce the report.

The ICECs rely on Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) attaché reports and analysis of foreign commodity developments, Economic Research Service (ERS) domestic and foreign regional assessments, and National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) U.S. crop and livestock estimates. For domestic policy and market information, the Board relies on the Farm Services Agency and the Agricultural Marketing Service. WAOB and FAS use weather analysis and satellite imagery to monitor crop conditions. Additional private and public information sources are considered.

This broad information base is reviewed and analyzed by ICEC members who bring diverse expertise and perspectives to the report. To arrive at consensus forecasts, alternative assessments of domestic and foreign supply and use are vetted at the ICEC meetings. Throughout the growing season and afterwards, estimates are compared with new information on production and utilization, and historical revisions are made as necessary.

The WASDE reports a full balance sheet for each commodity. Separate estimates are made for components of supply (beginning stocks, imports, and production) and demand (domestic use, exports, and ending stocks). Domestic use is subdivided into major categories, for example corn for feed and corn for ethanol. Domestic use may be based on data from other Federal agencies: for example, U.S. wheat ground for flour, soybeans crushed for oil, and cotton mill use come from the Bureau of the Census. The demand side of the balance sheet may include a category for “residual” or “unaccounted” disappearance to balance known uses against total supplies.

The WASDE also reports forecast season-average farm prices for most items. Prices tie together both sides of the balance sheet. Market prices aid in rationing available supplies among competing uses. Prices also indicate potential supply responses, for example potential planting decisions for the upcoming year. The process of forecasting price and balance sheet items is complex and involves the interaction of expert judgment, commodity models, and in-depth research by USDA analysts on key domestic and international issues.

Description

These reports present US and world supply/demand outlooks for a wide variety of agricultural products, including grains, oilseeds, cotton, pork and beef. They represent an accumulation of data on production and usage and offer projections for current/upcoming the marketing year.

The reports are released monthly, but the estimates are not necessarily revised every month. For the US data, production numbers tend to be revised during the growing season and into harvest, while demand numbers tend to be adjusted once the harvest is in and the products are marketed. The world data is adjusted every month because the data comes from many countries around the world.

Analysts focus primarily on each year’s ending stocks, as that provides a picture of whether supplies will be “tight” or “ample” at the end of the year. However, as production and consumption have been on a long term growth path for several decades, stock levels that may have been considered “ample” in years past may not be so anymore. With that in mind, analysts often prefer to use the stocks/usage ratio as a way of taking into account long term growth trends.

The world data covers individual countries as well as the entire world. Special attention is paid to the key producers, exporters and consumers. Brazil and the US together represent about 70% of global production and 85% of exports. The US, Argentina and Brazil represent 70% of global corn exports. Wheat is grown all around the world, with the US, Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Russia and Ukraine all major producers. India is the world’s largest producer of cotton, but the US is by far the largest exporter.

Traders will also want to keep in mind that marketing years vary from crop to crop, coinciding with the harvest. For example, wheat’s marketing year runs from June through May, cotton’s from August through July, corn and soybeans from September through August, and soybean meal and soybean oil from October through September (one month after soybeans).

The WASDE report also covers US meat production and consumption, including beef, pork and poultry. Annual production, consumption, export and stocks data is presented in the report, similar to the field crops. But this report also presents quarterly production data, which is of interest to cattle and hog traders, who track quarterly changes and compare them to previous years to gain insight as to whether the supply setup in upcoming quarters.

Recommended for you

Upcoming Events