| U.S. Grain Stocks (1000 Bushels) | ||||||
| 2025 | 2026 | |||||
| On Farms | Off Farms | Total | On Farms | Off Farms | Total | |
| Corn | ||||||
| Mar 1 | 4,500,000 | 3,647,437 | 8,147,437 | 5,432,000 | 3,598,190 | 9,030,190 |
| Jun 1 | 2,556,000 | 2,086,894 | 4,642,894 | 2,959,100 | 2,332,184 | 5,291,284 |
| Sep 1 | 643,200 | 908,086 | 1,551,286 | 787,300 | 1,307,757 | 2,095,057 |
| Dec 1 | 8,699,000 | 4,606,825 | 13,305,825 | |||
| All Wheat | ||||||
| Mar 1 | 307,125 | 929,462 | 1,236,587 | 298,492 | 1,004,481 | 1,302,973 |
| Jun 1 | 183,985 | 670,749 | 854,734 | 177,094 | 743,014 | 920,108 |
| Sep 1 | 692,240 | 1,441,778 | 2,134,018 | 546,500 | 1,299,243 | 1,845,743 |
| Dec 1 | 446,890 | 1,230,213 | 1,677,103 | |||
| Soybeans | ||||||
| Mar 1 | 876,500 | 1,034,424 | 1,910,924 | 900,000 | 1,223,249 | 2,123,249 |
| Jun 1 | 411,700 | 595,939 | 1,007,639 | 367,000 | 692,442 | 1,059,442 |
| Sep 1 | 91,500 | 233,306 | 324,806 | 90,400 | 224,733 | 315,133 |
| Dec 1 | 1,576,000 | 1,711,070 | 3,287,070 | |||
| USDA September 1 Quarterly Grain Stocks Pre-Report Estimates | ||||
| Average | Low | High | Last Year | |
| Corn | 1,911 | 1,535 | 2,080 | 1,551 |
| Soybeans | 321 | 285 | 342 | 325 |
| Wheat | 1,857 | 1,771 | 2,054 | 2,134 |
Highlights
SOYBEANS:
Soybean stocks as of September 1 were 315.133 million bushels, versus expectations of 321 million bushels and a range of 285 to 342 million bushels. September 1 stocks last year were 324.806 million. On-farm stocks were 90.400 million bushels, down from 91.500 million last September. Off-farm stocks were 224.733 million, up from 233.306 million last year.
PRICE OUTLOOK: Today's quarterly report pegged bean stocks slightly below guesses, but not enough to spark a major market reaction, and the report can be considered neutral. The stocks number was the lowest in the last 3 years. On-farm stocks came in friendly, but off-farm was higher than expected. Overall,, the report did not move the market much, with beans still holding modest gains on the day. 2025 bean production was reduced marginally, and that was not a market factor. Trader focus will quickly return to harvest weather and China demand since the report had no significant surprises.
CORN:
Corn stocks as of September 1 were 2.095 billion bushels, above the highest pre-report estimate and the highest since 2018. The average estimate was 1.911 billion bushels, with a range of 1.535 and 2.08 billion. September 1 stocks last year were 1.551 billion. On-Farm stocks were 787.3 million bushels, up from 643.2 million last September. Off-Farm stocks were 1.308 billion, up from 908.086 million last year.
PRICE OUTLOOK: Today's quarterly stocks number can be considered bearish, coming in higher than expected, and the stocks number was the highest since 2019. On- and off-farm stocks were significantly larger than last year. 2025 corn production was reduced slightly from USDA's August estimate but not enough to be significant. The market reaction has been bearish as expected, with corn declining more than $0.15 on the day -after the report. December is testing $5.00 support, but today's report adds an additional supply headwind. With exports slipping lately and no sign that China needs US feedgrains right now, the market may weaken further.
WHEAT:
The September 1 Small Grains Summary report showed All Wheat production at 1.534 billion bushels. The average estimate was 1.528 billion bushels, with a range of 1.498?1.543 billion. The August estimate was 1.531 billion. All Winter wheat production is estimated at 1.019 billion bushels, above the highest pre-report estimate. The average estimate was 989 million (range 965-1,010 million) and 990 in August. Hard-Red Winter production is 466.434 million bushels. The average estimate was 463, with a range of 455-475 million. Soft-Red Winter production is 293.750 million bushels, just under the high estimate. The average estimate was 288 million, with a range of 281-295 million. White Winter was 259.196 million, 15 million above the high estimate. The average estimate was 239 million (range 228-244 million), and the August estimate was 240 million. Other Spring production is 449.55 million bushels, below the lowest pre-report estimate. The average estimate was 472, with a range of 460-490 million. Durum production is estimated at 64.809 million bushels. The average pre-report estimate was 66 million bushels, with a range of 63-70 million bushels. Wheat stocks as of September 1 were 1.846 billion bushels, versus expectations of 1.857 billion bushels and a range of 1.771-2.054 billion. September 1 stocks last year were 2.134 billion. On-Farm stocks were 546.5 million bushels, down from 692.24 million last September. Off-farm stocks were 1.299 billion, down from 1.442 billion last year.
PRICE OUTLOOK: Today's stocks and production report was mixed, with stocks coming in below guesses, but wheat production slightly higher than expected. All-wheat, all-winter, white, HRW, and SRW all came in above guesses. Both on- and off-farm stocks were significantly below last year. However, prices have had a bearish reaction post-report, with Chicago wheat down $0.15, which is a bit surprising after the market has already fallen more than $1.15 this month. December is testing support but showing no signs of aggressive buying on the break. The trend remains lower.
Definition
This full-text report, issued four times yearly, contains stocks of all wheat, durum wheat, corn, sorghum, oats, barley, soybeans, flaxseed, canola, rapeseed, rye, sunflower, safflower, mustard seed, by States and U.S. and by position (on-farm or off-farm storage); includes number and capacity of off-farm storage facilities and capacity of on-farm storage facilities. The data is obtained via an off and on-farm stocks survey, the on-farm survey is a probability survey of farm operators, the off-farm stocks survey is enumerates the volume of grain in all known commercial grain storage facilities.
Description
Unlike the WASDE and other USDA reports, this report measures actual (counted) supply, not estimates or forecasts. It helps verify or correct the estimates in other the USDA reports, such as WASDE.
September is the most closely watched of the four quarterly reports, as it measures stock levels at the end of the marketing year for corn and soybeans. This number should equal the ending stocks number in the monthly Supply/Demand (WASDE) reports. If the September Grain Stocks number is different from the recent WASDE report, the next WASDE report will show an adjustment in supply and demand data to bring the numbers in line with each other. For example, if the WASDE reports have been calling for corn ending stocks to come in at 2.000 billion bushels and the September Grain Stocks report shows September 1 corn stocks at 1.892 billion, it would mean that actual supplies are smaller than projected. This would be a bullish surprise for the market, and we would expect the upcoming October WASDE report to reflect the new estimate.
The January, March and June stocks can also inform the rate of demand as the marketing year progresses.
The marketing year for wheat ends on May 31, and as such, the June Grain Stocks report is the most important for the wheat market.