US: Crop Progress

Highlights

Crop Conditions
Winter Wheat
Winter Wheat rated good / excellent (G/EX) as of June 28 was unchanged at 26% and poor / very poor was up 1% at 47%. Current G/EX is down 22% versus the 10 year average and Poor / Very Poor is up 26% versus the 10 year average. Of the 18 reported states 6 reported better, 4 worse, and 8 unchanged G/EX ratings. The good / excellent ratings for the top producing states were: Kansas 14%(0%), Washington 67%(+2%), Montana 25%(-5%), Idaho 82%(+3%), Oklahoma 9%(0%).

Spring Wheat
Spring Wheat rated good / excellent (G/EX) as of June 28 was up 5% at 59% and poor / very poor was up 1% at 7%. Current G/EX is unchanged versus the 10 year average and Poor / Very Poor is down 6% versus the 10 year average. Of the 6 reported states 4 reported better, 1 worse, and 1 unchanged G/EX ratings. The good / excellent ratings for the top producing states were: North Dakota 64%(+6%), Minnesota 89%(+4%), Montana 33%(+5%), Idaho 75%(0%), South Dakota 53%(+3%).

Corn
Corn rated good / excellent (G/EX) as of June 28 was down 1% at 67% and poor / very poor was up 2% at 8%. Current G/EX is unchanged versus the 10 year average and Poor / Very Poor is unchanged versus the 10 year average. Of the 18 reported states 10 reported better, 7 worse, and 1 unchanged G/EX ratings. The good / excellent ratings for the top producing states were: Iowa 78%(+1%), Illinois 60%(0%), Nebraska 63%(+6%), Minnesota 80%(+1%), Indiana 64%(-7%).

Soybeans
Soybeans rated good / excellent (G/EX) as of June 28 was down 1% at 65% and poor / very poor was up 2% at 8%. Current G/EX is up 1% versus the 10 year average and Poor / Very Poor is unchanged versus the 10 year average. Of the 18 reported states 9 reported better, 7 worse, and 2 unchanged G/EX ratings. The good / excellent ratings for the top producing states were: Illinois 55%(-3%), Iowa 75%(+1%), Minnesota 78%(+2%), Indiana 64%(-7%), Nebraska 64%(+5%).

Cotton
Cotton rated good / excellent (G/EX) as of June 28 was down 5% at 48% and poor / very poor was up 3% at 16%. Current G/EX is down 1% versus the 10 year average and Poor / Very Poor is down 1% versus the 10 year average. Of the 15 reported states 2 reported better, 11 worse, and 2 unchanged G/EX ratings. The good / excellent ratings for the top producing states were: Texas 39%(-5%), Georgia 58%(-1%), Arkansas 68%(-5%), Mississippi 47%(-4%), Missouri 86%(+2%).

Crop Progress
Winter Wheat
Winter Wheat harvested as of June 28 was up 8% at 48%. This is up 14% versus last year and up 8% versus the 10 year average. The top producing states report Kansas 72%(+14%), Washington 0%(0%), Montana 0%(0%), Idaho 0%(0%), Oklahoma 98%(+3%).

Cotton
Cotton planted as of June 28 was up 5% at 97%. This is up 2% versus last year. The top producing states report Texas 95%(+5%), Georgia 100%(+3%), Arkansas 100%(0%), Mississippi 100%(+1%), Missouri 100%(0%).

Definition

This full text file contains reports, issued weekly during the growing season (April to November), which lists planting, fruiting, and harvesting progress and overall condition of selected crops in major producing states. The data, summarized by crop and by state, are republished along with any revisions in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin. During the months of December through March, the report is issued monthly titled State Stories.

Description

These reports offer weekly analysis of the progress and condition of the crops. State-by-state data is provided, which is aggregated into a number that covers the key producing states that make up the majority of the US crop.

Crop Progress is measured by stages and percentage of completion. This includes percent planted, percent harvested, and several stages in between. Some of the stages vary from crop to crop. For example, intermediate stages for corn include emergence, silk, dough, dent, and maturity, while the stages for soybeans include emergence, bloom, setting pods, and dropping leaves. The reports compare the current week with the same period in the previous year and with the 5-year average.

Inclement weather in the spring can delay planting, which could ultimately lower the production for that year. For corn, producers may be forced to pick faster-growing but lower-yielding seed varieties if planting gets delayed. In some cases, they may switch to soybeans, which have a shorter growing season. If it is excessively hot and dry during the corn silking stage, yields could drop, and a delayed start to the season could push silking later in the summer and increase the odds of that happening. A key stage to watch for soybeans in pod-filling, as excessively dry weather during that stage could result in smaller beans and lower yield. If the crops are late, there is an increased chance of frost before the plants have matured, which can also reduce yield.

Crop Conditions are measured by five categories: Excellent, Good, Fair, Poor and Very Poor. As a rule of thumb, analysts tend to focus on the percentage that is in the good and excellent categories (“Good/Excellent”) and to a lesser extent to “Poor/Very Poor.” The reports include data on the current week, the previous week, and a year prior.

Analysts look at the weekly conditions data during the growing season to get an idea on how the crop is performing relative to previous years. If the crop conditions are poor, analysts may want to reduce their production estimates, and vice-versa if the crop conditions are strong. Analysts may also look at individual states’ conditions in light of the weather those areas are experiencing.

Recommended for you

Upcoming Events