US: Crop Progress

Highlights

Crop Conditions
Winter Wheat
Winter Wheat rated good / excellent (G/EX) as of June 14 was up 2% at 27% and poor / very poor was down 1% at 45%. Current G/EX is down 21% versus the 10 year average and Poor / Very Poor is up 23% versus the 10 year average. Of the 18 reported states 7 reported better, 5 worse, and 6 unchanged G/EX ratings. The good / excellent ratings for the top producing states were: Kansas 14%(0%), Washington 72%(-3%), Oklahoma 9%(0%), Montana 36%(+11%), Colorado 12%(+5%).

Spring Wheat
Spring Wheat rated good / excellent (G/EX) as of June 14 was up 3% at 55% and poor / very poor was unchanged at 6%. Current G/EX is down 9% versus the 10 year average and Poor / Very Poor is down 3% versus the 10 year average. Of the 6 reported states 3 reported better, 2 worse, and 1 unchanged G/EX ratings. The good / excellent ratings for the top producing states were: North Dakota 61%(0%), Minnesota 90%(+4%), Montana 19%(+9%), Idaho 76%(+1%), South Dakota 50%(-2%).

Corn
Corn rated good / excellent (G/EX) as of June 14 was up 1% at 68% and poor / very poor was unchanged at 6%. Current G/EX is down 1% versus the 10 year average and Poor / Very Poor is unchanged versus the 10 year average. Of the 18 reported states 7 reported better, 9 worse, and 2 unchanged G/EX ratings. The good / excellent ratings for the top producing states were: Iowa 79%(-5%), Illinois 66%(-1%), Nebraska 55%(-3%), Minnesota 81%(+2%), Indiana 62%(+5%).

Soybeans
Soybeans rated good / excellent (G/EX) as of June 14 was up 1% at 66% and poor / very poor was unchanged at 6%. Current G/EX is down 2% versus the 10 year average and Poor / Very Poor is unchanged versus the 10 year average. Of the 18 reported states 9 reported better, 8 worse, and 1 unchanged G/EX ratings. The good / excellent ratings for the top producing states were: Illinois 61%(-3%), Iowa 77%(-3%), Minnesota 80%(+3%), Indiana 62%(+7%), Missouri 59%(+1%).

Cotton
Cotton rated good / excellent (G/EX) as of June 14 was down 3% at 50% and poor / very poor was down 3% at 11%. Current G/EX is up 1% versus the 10 year average and Poor / Very Poor is down 4% versus the 10 year average. Of the 15 reported states 5 reported better, 9 worse, and 1 unchanged G/EX ratings. The good / excellent ratings for the top producing states were: Texas 42%(-3%), Georgia 58%(+1%), Arkansas 71%(-1%), Missouri 84%(+2%), Mississippi 42%(-5%).

Crop Progress
Winter Wheat
Winter Wheat harvested as of June 14 was up 14% at 25%. This is up 16% versus last year and up 11% versus the 10 year average. The top producing states report Kansas 28%(+23%), Washington 0%(0%), Oklahoma 73%(+29%), Montana 0%(0%), Colorado 0%(0%).

Cotton
Cotton planted as of June 14 was up 9% at 86%. This is up 2% versus last year and down 3% versus the 10 year average. The top producing states report Texas 80%(+12%), Georgia 94%(+9%), Arkansas 98%(+1%), Missouri 100%(0%), Mississippi 95%(+5%).

Soybeans
Soybeans planted as of June 14 was up 3% at 95%. This is up 2% versus last year and up 4% versus the 10 year average. The top producing states report Illinois 95%(+2%), Iowa 98%(+1%), Minnesota 99%(+1%), Indiana 96%(+3%), Missouri 83%(+3%).

Definition

This full text file contains reports, issued weekly during the growing season (April to November), which lists planting, fruiting, and harvesting progress and overall condition of selected crops in major producing states. The data, summarized by crop and by state, are republished along with any revisions in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin. During the months of December through March, the report is issued monthly titled State Stories.

Description

These reports offer weekly analysis of the progress and condition of the crops. State-by-state data is provided, which is aggregated into a number that covers the key producing states that make up the majority of the US crop.

Crop Progress is measured by stages and percentage of completion. This includes percent planted, percent harvested, and several stages in between. Some of the stages vary from crop to crop. For example, intermediate stages for corn include emergence, silk, dough, dent, and maturity, while the stages for soybeans include emergence, bloom, setting pods, and dropping leaves. The reports compare the current week with the same period in the previous year and with the 5-year average.

Inclement weather in the spring can delay planting, which could ultimately lower the production for that year. For corn, producers may be forced to pick faster-growing but lower-yielding seed varieties if planting gets delayed. In some cases, they may switch to soybeans, which have a shorter growing season. If it is excessively hot and dry during the corn silking stage, yields could drop, and a delayed start to the season could push silking later in the summer and increase the odds of that happening. A key stage to watch for soybeans in pod-filling, as excessively dry weather during that stage could result in smaller beans and lower yield. If the crops are late, there is an increased chance of frost before the plants have matured, which can also reduce yield.

Crop Conditions are measured by five categories: Excellent, Good, Fair, Poor and Very Poor. As a rule of thumb, analysts tend to focus on the percentage that is in the good and excellent categories (“Good/Excellent”) and to a lesser extent to “Poor/Very Poor.” The reports include data on the current week, the previous week, and a year prior.

Analysts look at the weekly conditions data during the growing season to get an idea on how the crop is performing relative to previous years. If the crop conditions are poor, analysts may want to reduce their production estimates, and vice-versa if the crop conditions are strong. Analysts may also look at individual states’ conditions in light of the weather those areas are experiencing.

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