| Recent History | |||||||
| On Feed | Placements | Marketings | On Feed | ||||
| Month | Million Head | % YoY | Million Head | % YoY | Million Head | % YoY | 90+ Days |
| Jul-25 | 11.124 | 98.4% | 1.598 | 93.9% | 1.749 | 94.3% | 6.348 |
| Aug-25 | 10.922 | 98.4% | 1.780 | 90.1% | 1.571 | 86.4% | 6.162 |
| Sep-25 | 11.080 | 98.9% | 2.021 | 93.7% | 1.632 | 96.1% | 6.416 |
| Oct-25 | 11.418 | 98.4% | 2.040 | 90.0% | 1.698 | 92.0% | 6.172 |
| Nov-25 | 11.706 | 97.8% | 1.594 | 88.8% | 1.520 | 88.1% | 6.021 |
| Dec-25 | 11.727 | 97.9% | 1.554 | 94.6% | 1.773 | 101.8% | 6.230 |
| Jan-26 | 11.450 | 96.8% | - | - | - | - | 6.427 |
| Cattle on Feed Estimates | |||||
| Estimates | |||||
| As Of | Average | Low | High | Last Year | |
| On Feed | Jan | 96.8% | 96.0% | 97.6% | 99.1% |
| Placements | Dec | 93.1% | 88.0% | 95.4% | 96.7% |
| Marketings | Dec | 101.7% | 100.0% | 102.5% | 101.0% |
Highlights
Cattle on Feed supply as of January 1st came in at 96.8% of last year, versus the average trade estimate of 96.8% with a range of 96.0% to 97.6%. Placements for December were 94.6% versus trade expectations of 93.1% and a range of 88.0% to 95.4%. Marketings came in at 101.8% of last year as compared with the average estimate of 101.7% and a range of 100.0% to 102.5%.
The report can be considered neutral with a slight bearish tilt due to the placements. We doubt the report will create much excitement on Monday morning, and cattle traders will probably move quickly beyond this report in favor of the weather forecast next week and Commitment of Traders' data. Cash cattle prices were strong to finish the week, and extreme winter conditions are expected to linger into mid-week before another shot of polar air late next week is anticipated to keep animal weather stress elevated. Any surprise weekend headlines could affect prices Monday, but this report does nothing to suggest the current bull run is ready to end, especially since beef in cold storage is at its lowest level since 2009.
Definition
This file contains the monthly total number of cattle and calves on feed, placements, marketings, and other disappearances; by class and feedlot capacity for selected states; number of feedlots and fed cattle marketings by size groups for selected states. Data is organized by state and by U.S.
Description
This report offers a timely update on the current makeup of the beef cattle herd. It is probably the most-watched of the USDA reports for the cattle markets and can be a market-moving event if it contains a surprise. The marketings number provides an indicator of recent demand and has the ability to affect the price of nearby futures contracts. The placements number offers insight on the future supply of market ready cattle and has a tendency to affect the deferred contracts. Cattle are placed on feed for anywhere from 90 to 180 days, so a large placements number in June would project large market-ready supply in the fall. Both the placements and the marketings numbers inform the on feed number, which is a measure of current supply. The report offers state-by-state breakdowns as well by various weight groupings, providing an opportunity for further, in-depth analysis. Cattle on Feed reports are usually released on Friday afternoons after the cattle futures market closes, and the results will be reflected on the opening the following Monday morning.
