| Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Year over Year | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% |
Highlights
Retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent in November after a downwardly revised 0.2 percent (0.7) gain in October, while increasing 2.3 percent over November of last year. October's gain of 2.7 percent was revised down to 2.2 percent.
On a monthly basis, gains of 1.1 percent for sales at markets, internet sales, and mail order along with a 0.7 percent increase at filling stations were tempered by lower prices elsewhere. Communication and information technology sales were down 1.8 percent after a 1.7 percent increase the previous month. At the same time, household appliances, furnishings, textiles and renovation declined 1.1 percent. In October they rose 1.0 percent.
The November year-on-year percent change was above two percent for the third consecutive month, with the November gain helped by a 12.3 percent increase in the sales of information and communications equipment. Increases were broad-based, with only food, beverages, and tobacco contracting, having fallen 1.4 percent in November from a year ago.
While the monthly data have shown only modest gains of late, they have nevertheless risen for the past three month. The same is true for the year-on-year gains, but it is encouraging that the increases are broad-based and lower prices for food, beverages, and tobacco will be welcome by consumers. With two positive gains in the first two months of the fourth quarter, GDP figures should get a boost from the consumer sector.
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The survey comprises around 4,000 companies with the small-sized firms asked to provide monthly turnover data on a quarterly basis. Statistics are provided in both nominal and volume measures; the latter is the more important for financial markets. The headline figure is the annual growth in sales volumes adjusted for differences in trading days. Seasonally adjusted monthly changes are also provided. Details are limited in the first estimate but a more complete picture is provided with the following month's release.
Description
Consumer spending accounts for a large portion of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you will have a pretty good idea on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that is a big advantage for investors. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.