| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Y/Y - 3-Month Moving Average | 3.6% | 3.3% to 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% |
| Private Sector Lending -Y/Y | 4.3% | 4.4% |
Highlights
Monetary developments in the euro area remained broadly stable in September 2026, suggesting continued liquidity expansion despite persistent economic uncertainty. According to the European Central Bank (ECB), annual broad money growth (M3) remained unchanged at 3.5 percent, with a three-month to September average of 3.5 percent, 0.1 percent below the consensus forecast and indicating steady monetary expansion and relatively stable liquidity conditions.
However, narrow money growth (M1) moderated from 2.9 percent in August to 2.7 percent in September, reflecting slower growth in the most liquid monetary assets. This divergence suggests that underlying liquidity dynamics remain uneven, potentially signalling cautious spending and cash management behaviour among households and businesses.
Meanwhile, annual growth in adjusted lending to households remained steady at 3.1 percent, while lending to non-financial corporations maintained a stronger expansion of 4.2 percent. This indicates that corporate credit continues to grow faster than household borrowing, potentially supporting business investment and working capital requirements.
In summary, stable broad money growth and sustained private-sector lending suggest monetary resilience rather than accelerating economic momentum. Nevertheless, weaker narrow money growth warrants attention, as persistent moderation could constrain domestic demand and delay a more sustained economic recovery.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Money supply growth expected to speed up to 3.6 percent in September from 3.4 percent in August.
Definition
M3 is the European Central Bank's (ECB) preferred broad measure of money supply. Since January 1999, the ECB has tended to focus on the 3-month moving average of the annual growth rate to judge underlying M3 trends although the significance of its 4.5 percent reference rate has been steadily downgraded with time. The private sector lending counterpart is usually seen as the most important element of the M3 report.
Description
While other central banks have virtually ignored money supply data, the European Central Bank has not. Thanks to the influence of the Bundesbank in organizing the ECB, M3 money supply was established as one of the 'two pillars' of monetary policy used by the ECB, the other being the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). While the target for HICP is two percent, the seemingly largely ignored reference target for M3 growth is 4.5 percent as measured by a three month moving average which is compared with the same three months a year earlier.
M3 measures overall money supply. It consists of M1 which is currency in circulation plus overnight deposits and M2 which include deposits with an agreed maturity up to two years plus deposits redeemable at up to three months' notice. Not all M3 measures are alike. For example, ECB M3 is approximately equivalent to the Federal Reserve's M2 measure. Because an increase in M3 leads to price inflation, this figure can also be indicative of the likelihood of future interest rate hikes.