| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Y/Y - 3-Month Moving Average | 3.2% | 3.0% to 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| Private Sector Lending -Y/Y | 3.9% | 3.8% |
Highlights
Euro area monetary conditions showed modest improvement in June 2026, although underlying liquidity and credit trends remained mixed. Annual growth in the broad monetary aggregate M3 accelerated to 3.3 percent, from a revised 3.0 percent in May, and a three-month average of 3.0 percent, suggesting a gradual expansion in overall liquidity within the economy.
However, growth in the narrower M1 aggregate slowed to 3.4 percent from a revised 3.7 percent. This decline indicates weaker growth in highly liquid funds, such as currency and overnight deposits, which may reflect cautious household and business spending behaviour.
Credit expansion remained stable but uneven. Adjusted lending to households grew by 3.0 percent, unchanged from May, signalling steady (but not strengthening) consumer borrowing and housing-related credit demand. Meanwhile, loans to non-financial corporations maintained a stronger annual growth rate of 4.0 percent, suggesting comparatively resilient business financing and investment activity.
In summary, the figures point to a measured monetary expansion. Rising M3 provides a supportive liquidity backdrop, but slowing M1 and unchanged household lending suggest that monetary growth has not yet translated into a broad acceleration in domestic demand. These latest updates take the RPI to minus 1 and the RPI-P to minus 5, meaning that economic activities continue to align with market expectations in the euro area.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Forecasters see M3 growth at a 3.2 percent rate in June versus 3.0 percent in May.
Definition
M3 is the European Central Bank's (ECB) preferred broad measure of money supply. Since January 1999, the ECB has tended to focus on the 3-month moving average of the annual growth rate to judge underlying M3 trends although the significance of its 4.5 percent reference rate has been steadily downgraded with time. The private sector lending counterpart is usually seen as the most important element of the M3 report.
Description
While other central banks have virtually ignored money supply data, the European Central Bank has not. Thanks to the influence of the Bundesbank in organizing the ECB, M3 money supply was established as one of the 'two pillars' of monetary policy used by the ECB, the other being the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). While the target for HICP is two percent, the seemingly largely ignored reference target for M3 growth is 4.5 percent as measured by a three month moving average which is compared with the same three months a year earlier.
M3 measures overall money supply. It consists of M1 which is currency in circulation plus overnight deposits and M2 which include deposits with an agreed maturity up to two years plus deposits redeemable at up to three months' notice. Not all M3 measures are alike. For example, ECB M3 is approximately equivalent to the Federal Reserve's M2 measure. Because an increase in M3 leads to price inflation, this figure can also be indicative of the likelihood of future interest rate hikes.