https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/images/common/default/article-940x600.jpg
EMU: PMI Composite Final
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Composite Index | 51.9 | 51.9 to 51.9 | 51.7 | 53.1 |
| Services Index | 51.7 | 51.7 to 51.7 | 51.4 | 53.0 |
Highlights
The eurozone economy maintained its expansion in October 2026, although weakening demand, rising cost pressures and deteriorating business confidence suggest a fragile start to the fourth quarter. The Eurozone composite PMI declined to 51.7 from 53.1 in September, while the services PMI fell to 51.4 from 53.0, with both indices reaching four-month lows.
The slowdown reflected weaker growth across manufacturing and services, alongside near-stagnation in new orders. Services demand contracted marginally, while manufacturing orders provided limited support. Geographically, Germany, Italy, Spain and Ireland maintained positive growth, albeit at slower rates, while France returned to contraction, revealing persistent disparities in regional economic performance.
Labour market conditions also weakened, with employment declining at its fastest pace since May, primarily driven by services. Meanwhile, economy-wide input cost inflation accelerated to a five-month high, although services price pressures moderated slightly. This divergence suggests that inflationary risks remain unevenly distributed across sectors. More concerningly, business confidence deteriorated for the third consecutive month, remaining below its historical average.
In summary, the eurozone faces an increasingly delicate recovery, with subdued demand, weakening employment and persistent inflationary pressures potentially constraining growth and complicating the European Central Bank’s monetary policy outlook. These updates take the RPI and RPI-P to minus 4, meaning that economic activities are now within the expectations of the euro area economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus looks for no revision in the final from the flash at 51.9 for the composite and 51.7 for services for October. That is down from 53.1 and 53.0, respectively, in September.
Definition
The Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of private sector output for the preceding month by combining information obtained from surveys of the manufacturing and service sectors of the economy. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) output versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is output growing (contracting). The report also contains the final estimate of the services PMI. The data are provided by S&P Global using a representative sample of around 5,000 manufacturing and services companies, the former including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, the Republic of Ireland and Greece and the latter Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Republic of Ireland.
Description
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the purchasing managers' manufacturing indexes, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.