https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/images/common/default/article-940x600.jpg
EMU: PMI Composite Final
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Composite Index | 50.5 | 50.5 to 50.5 | 50.7 | 51.9 |
| Services Index | 50.1 | 50.1 to 50.1 | 50.2 | 51.9 |
Highlights
The eurozone enters the second quarter with growth on a fragile footing, as the composite PMI slips to 50.7its weakest in nine monthssignalling an economy hovering just above stagnation. The slowdown is clearly service-led, with activity barely expanding (50.2) and demand contracting for the first time since mid-2025. This marks a turning point from the modest recovery seen in previous quarters.
A key tension in the data lies between rising costs and weak demand. Input price inflation has surged to a three-year high, driven strongly by manufacturing but also evident in services. However, firms are unable to fully pass these costs onto consumers, suggesting margin compression and limited pricing power.
Manufacturing provides some resilience, particularly through stabilising export volumes, yet this is insufficient to offset the drag from servicesespecially declining international demand in that sector. Labour market signals are equally cautious as hiring has largely stalled, and job losses, though modest, are the highest in over a year. Falling business confidence reinforces this soft outlook.
In essence, the eurozone appears caught in a low-growth, high-cost environment, where inflationary pressures persist despite weakening demand. These updates take the RPI to minus 36 and the RPI-P to minus 30, meaning that economic activities continue to lag market expectations in the euro area.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus sees no revision in the final composite index from the flash at 50.5 for March versus 51.9 in February. The consensus also sees no revision in the final services index from the flash at 50.1 for March versus 51.9 in February
Definition
The Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of private sector output for the preceding month by combining information obtained from surveys of the manufacturing and service sectors of the economy. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) output versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is output growing (contracting). The report also contains the final estimate of the services PMI. The data are provided by S&P Global using a representative sample of around 5,000 manufacturing and services companies, the former including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, the Republic of Ireland and Greece and the latter Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Republic of Ireland.
Description
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the purchasing managers' manufacturing indexes, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.