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EMU: PMI Composite Flash
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Composite Index | 51.6 | 51.5 to 52.0 | 52.1 | 51.9 |
| Manufacturing Index | 51.9 | 51.6 to 52.2 | 52.8 | 52.0 |
| Services Index | 51.5 | 51.5 to 52.0 | 51.7 | 51.6 |
Highlights
Eurozone business activity strengthened marginally in August 2026, with the composite PMI rising from 52.0 to a nine-month high of 52.1. Although this signals continued private-sector expansion, the recovery remained uneven and increasingly manufacturing-led. The Manufacturing PMI reached a 51-month high of 52.8, while manufacturing output recorded its strongest expansion in four-and-a-half years. Germany was the principal industrial driver, whereas France remained in contraction.
Demand conditions also improved as new orders grew at their fastest pace in 40 months, while export orders expanded for the first time in four-and-a-half years. This suggests that external demand is becoming a meaningful source of recovery. Employment increased for the first time in 2026, with manufacturing ending 38 consecutive months of job losses.
Nevertheless, falling inventories and longer supplier-delivery times indicate emerging supply-chain constraints. Inflationary pressures moderated, with output-price inflation reaching its lowest rate since March, although input costs remained historically elevated. Moreover, weaker business confidence reveals continuing uncertainty about future demand.
In summary, the eurozone recovery is broadening, but its sustainability depends on stronger services activity, improved supply conditions and greater geographical balance. These updates take the RPI to 4 and the RPI-P to 11, meaning that economic activities continue to perform within the expectations of the euro area economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The composite index is expected at 51.6 in the August flash versus 52.0 in the July final.
Definition
The flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an early estimate of current private sector business activity by combining information obtained from surveys of the manufacturing and service sectors of the economy. The flash data are released around ten days ahead of the final report and are typically based upon around 75-85 percent of the full survey sample. Results covering a range of variables including manufacturing output, employment, new orders, backlogs and prices are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The report also contains flash estimates of the manufacturing and services PMIs. The survey, produced by S&P Global, uses a representative sample of around 5,000 manufacturing and services companies, the former including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, the Republic of Ireland and Greece and the latter Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Republic of Ireland.
Description
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the purchasing managers' manufacturing indexes, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.