| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | 0.2% | -0.1% to 0.6% | -0.1% | -0.5% | 0.2% |
| Year over Year | 1.7% | 1.4% to 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% |
Highlights
Euro area retail activity in January 2026 showed that on a monthly basis, retail trade volumes edged down by 0.1 percent, reversing the modest 0.2 percent growth recorded in December 2025. This slight contraction suggests that consumer momentum at the start of the year remains fragile, likely reflecting continued pressure on household purchasing power and cautious spending behaviour.
Sectoral trends reveal uneven consumer demand. Spending on essential goods such as food, drinks, and tobacco increased by 0.3 percent, indicating that households continue to prioritise necessities. In contrast, non-food products declined by 0.2 percent, pointing to weaker discretionary consumption. Automotive fuel sales experienced the sharpest drop at 1.1 percent, which may reflect lower mobility demand, price adjustments, or shifts in consumer travel patterns.
Despite the short-term dip, the annual comparison shows a more encouraging trend. Retail sales volumes rose by 2.0 percent compared with January 2025, suggesting that consumer activity remains stronger than a year earlier. Growth was particularly notable in non-food products, which expanded by 2.4 percent, signalling gradual recovery in discretionary spending.
In summary, the data indicate that while monthly volatility persists, underlying retail demand in the euro area remains moderately positive. These updates take the RPI to 6 and the RPI-P to minus 10, meaning that economic activities continue to perform within the expectations of the euro area.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Sales expected up 0.2 percent on the month and 1.7 percent on year.
Definition
Retail sales measure goods that are sold to the consumer or end-user, generally in small quantities and in the state in which they were purchased by the retailer. Eurozone retail sales are reported monthly, in volume terms and exclude autos and motorcycles. A limited sector breakdown is presented in the first release but much more detail is available in the following period's release.
Description
Retail sales are important indicators of domestic consumer demand and are monitored closely by analysts as an important input to GDP. If you know what consumers are up to, you will have a pretty good idea on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors. The data are available in both value and volume measures although the press release deals only with volume. In addition to the total, the initial report provides a limited breakdown that separately identifies food, drink and tobacco, and (excluding automotive fuel) non-food products. A more comprehensive dataset is only available with the following month's release. Unlike the U.S. and Canada, auto sales are not included in the retail sales data.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.