| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | -0.1% | -0.2% to 0.1% | -0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Year over Year | 1.9% | 1.8% to 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% |
Highlights
Euro area retail activity softened at the end of 2025, reflecting a cautious consumer mood rather than a collapse in demand. Retail trade volumes fell by 0.5 percent month-over-month in December, 0.4 percent below the consensus forecast and reversing the modest expansion recorded in November. This short-term pullback appears driven mainly by discretionary spending, as non-food retail sales declined sharply, while food and essential purchases continued to edge higher. Stability in fuel sales further suggests that consumers prioritised necessity-driven expenditure as the year closed.
The annual picture, however, remains more supportive. Retail volumes were 1.3 percent higher than a year earlier, indicating that household consumption retained underlying resilience despite tighter financial conditions. Growth across all major retail categories on a year-over-year basis points to gradual normalisation in spending patterns, with non-food goods leading the expansion.
Indeed, the latest data indicate that consumers are navigating persistent cost-of-living pressures with restraint, balancing essential purchases against discretionary cutbacks while sustaining moderate real consumption growth over the year. These updates take the RPI to minus 21 and the RPI-P to minus 5, meaning that economic activities are now lagging behind market expectations in the euro area.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus sees sales down 0.1 percent on the month in December after rising 0.2 percent in November. Sales on year are forecast up 1.9 percent in January after increasing 2.3 percent in December.
Definition
Retail sales measure goods that are sold to the consumer or end-user, generally in small quantities and in the state in which they were purchased by the retailer. Eurozone retail sales are reported monthly, in volume terms and exclude autos and motorcycles. A limited sector breakdown is presented in the first release but much more detail is available in the following period's release.
Description
Retail sales are important indicators of domestic consumer demand and are monitored closely by analysts as an important input to GDP. If you know what consumers are up to, you will have a pretty good idea on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors. The data are available in both value and volume measures although the press release deals only with volume. In addition to the total, the initial report provides a limited breakdown that separately identifies food, drink and tobacco, and (excluding automotive fuel) non-food products. A more comprehensive dataset is only available with the following month's release. Unlike the U.S. and Canada, auto sales are not included in the retail sales data.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.