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EMU: Industrial Production
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | 0.5% | 0.5% to 0.9% | -1.5% | -1.4% | -0.6% |
| Year over Year | 1.4% | 1.3% to 1.5% | -1.2% | 1.2% | 2.2% |
Highlights
Euro area industrial activity started 2026 on a weak footing, with output declining 1.5 percent in January after a 0.6 percent revised fall in December, suggesting that the manufacturing sector continues to struggle with soft demand and lingering structural pressures. The decline indicates that industrial momentum remains fragile at the beginning of the year.
The monthly breakdown reveals that the downturn was broad-based across most production categories. Output fell sharply for capital goods (minus 2.3 percent), signalling weaker investment activity among firms. Production of intermediate goods (minus 1.9 percent), often viewed as an early indicator of industrial demand, also contracted, pointing to slowing supply chain activity.
Consumer-related sectors were particularly weak, with durable consumer goods (minus 1.9 percent) and non-durable consumer goods (minus 6.0 percent) recording notable declines, suggesting subdued household demand across the euro area. The only strong performer was the energy sector, which rose 4.7 percent, likely reflecting seasonal demand and energy market adjustments.
On a yearly basis, the pattern remains similar as industrial production fell 1.2 percent compared with January 2025, with persistent weakness in intermediate and consumer goods output. Energy production and capital goods provided some resilience, but the broader trend indicates that Europe's industrial sector continues to face demand constraints and uneven recovery dynamics.
Regionally, among the top 4 economies, industrial production fell in Spain (minus 0.2 percent after minus 0.3 percent), Germany (minus 1.6 percent after 0.5 percent), and Italy (minus 0.6 percent after 2.7 percent), but rose in France (2.3 percent after 1.5 percent). These updates take the RPI to minus 3 and the RPI-P to minus 20, meaning that economic activities continue to perform in line with the euro area expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Output expected up 0.5 percent on month and 1.4 percent on year in January after falling 1.4 percent on the month and rising 1.2 percent on year in December.
Definition
Industrial production measures the physical output of factories, mines and utilities. The measure provided by Eurostat excludes the volatile construction subsector for which data are released a few days later.
Description
Industrial production measures changes in the volume of output for the EMU's member states. The industrial production index provides a measure of the volume trend in value added at factor cost over a given reference period, excluding VAT and other similar deductible taxes. The preferred number is industrial production excluding construction. As with other EMU statistics, the data are provided by the national statistics offices to Eurostat (the European Union statistical agency) where it is combined to produce an overall output measure.
Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that will not lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.