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GB: Lloyds House Price Index
| Actual | Previous | Revised | |
| Month over Month | 0.0% | 0.2% | |
| Year over Year | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
Highlights
The UK housing market entered July in a state of measured stagnation. Average prices remained virtually unchanged at £299,253, while annual growth slowed to just 0.1 percent, its weakest rate since November 2023. Prices have increased by only 0.5 percent since November 2024, suggesting resilience but little meaningful upward momentum. If inflation is considered, this nominal stability may represent a decline in real property values.
Affordability remains the market’s central constraint. Mortgage rates have risen following renewed geopolitical uncertainty, limiting purchasing power and making demand highly sensitive to borrowing costs. Although mortgage approvals and transactions improved modestly in June, activity remains fragile.
The national average also conceals a pronounced geographical divide. Northern Ireland led annual growth at 7.4 percent, followed by Scotland at 3.6 percent. Northern English regions recorded moderate gains, while the South East and London declined by 2.0 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively.
This pattern suggests that comparatively affordable regions retain greater growth capacity, whereas expensive southern markets face stronger affordability pressures. In summary, stability is likely to continue, although inflation, mortgage rates and household confidence will determine the market’s direction.
Definition
The Halifax House Price Index (HPI) is the UK's longest running monthly house price measure with data covering the whole country going back to January 1983. The index is based on the largest monthly sample of mortgage data, typically covering around 15,000 house purchases per month, and covers the whole calendar month. In March 2016 Markit announced that it would be acquiring the Halifax HPI from Lloyds Banking Group. Halifax continues to publish the index on behalf of Markit and both the name and the basic methodology remain unchanged. However, in May 2020, the annual growth measure was changed from the average of the last three months to just the latest month.
Description
Home values affect much in the economy - especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can damp housing starts. Changes in home values play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health. During the first half of this decade sharply rising home prices boosted how much home equity households held. In turn, this increased consumers' ability to spend, based on wealth effects and from being able to draw upon expanding home equity lines of credit.