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GB: PMI Manufacturing Final
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Level | 52.8 | 52.8 to 52.8 | 51.9 | 52.5 |
Highlights
The UK manufacturing sector remained in expansion during July 2026, although growth moderated slightly as the manufacturing PMI declined from 52.5 in June to 51.9, marking a four-month low. Despite the softer headline reading, the underlying performance was encouraging. Manufacturing output accelerated to its fastest pace in almost two years, supported by stronger domestic demand and sustained growth in export orders from key markets, including North America, the European Union, China, India and South Korea.
Furthermore, easing input cost inflation and moderating supply chain disruptions reduced production cost pressures, creating a more favourable operating environment for manufacturers. Nevertheless, the sector continues to face important challenges. Business confidence weakened to a three-month low as firms remained concerned about global trade tensions, higher taxation and regulatory uncertainty. Employment growth slowed to near stagnation as many businesses prioritised cost control despite increasing production requirements.
Smaller manufacturers also underperformed relative to medium and large firms, indicating that the recovery remains uneven across the sector. While backlogs of work increased for the first time since April 2022, suggesting stronger future production, declining purchasing activity and inventory levels reflect continued caution among manufacturers. Indeed, the report indicates that UK manufacturing remains resilient, supported by improving demand and easing inflationary pressures, although policy uncertainty and fragile business confidence continue to constrain the pace and breadth of the recovery.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus looks for no revision in the final July report from the flash at 52.8, almost flat from 52.5 in the June final.
Definition
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of manufacturing business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating around 3,000 companies. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The survey covers more than 600 industrial companies and is compiled by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) and Markit.
Description
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. and the and S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
The PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.