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GB: PMI Manufacturing Final
| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Level | 53.1 | 49.4 to 53.1 | 52.5 | 53.9 |
Highlights
The UK manufacturing sector maintained its expansionary trajectory in June, although signs are emerging that the pace of recovery is becoming more measured. The global UK manufacturing PMI eased to 52.5 from 53.9, remaining firmly in expansion territory for an eighth consecutive month. While the headline index softened, manufacturing output accelerated to its fastest rate since September 2024, reflecting continued production gains supported by strategic customer stockpiling, improved market confidence and promotional activity.
However, underlying demand dynamics suggest that this momentum may be moderating. New orders continued to grow but at their slowest pace since December 2025, indicating that the boost from precautionary inventory accumulation is beginning to diminish. Export demand also weakened, with geopolitical instability in the Middle East offsetting stronger orders from China, the EU and the United States.
Cost pressures showed tentative signs of easing as input price inflation slowed to its weakest rate since March. Nevertheless, persistent supply chain disruptions, shipping delays and material shortages continued to elevate production costs and prolong delivery times, prompting manufacturers to pass higher costs on to customers. Although employment expanded for a third consecutive month, hiring remained restrained amid policy uncertainty and rising costs.
Indeed, the sector demonstrates resilience, but sustaining growth will depend on stronger underlying demand, improved supply chain conditions and greater geopolitical stability. These updates take the RPI to minus 9 and the RPI-P at 6, meaning that economic activities are now within the expectations of the UK economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus looks for no revision in the June final from the June flash at 53.1 versus 53.9 in May.
Definition
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of manufacturing business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating around 3,000 companies. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The survey covers more than 600 industrial companies and is compiled by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) and S&P Global.
Description
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. and the and S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
The PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.