| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Composite Index | 51.7 | 51.7 to 51.7 | 52.0 | 52.5 |
| Services Index | 51.7 | 51.7 to 51.7 | 52.1 | 52.5 |
Highlights
The UK’s private sector recovery continued in September, but its momentum weakened as cost pressures intensified. The composite PMI slipped from 52.5 to 52.0, while the services PMI declined from 52.5 to 52.1. Both readings indicate moderate expansion, although marginal new order growth suggests limited support for further acceleration.
The recovery remained uneven. Strong technology services demand contrasted with weakness among construction clients, while services export orders fell for a seventh consecutive month. Declining backlogs and continued job cuts indicate spare capacity, suggesting that employment restraint reflects weak demand and margin protection rather than labour shortages. Reported adoption of AI also encouraged firms to leave vacancies unfilled.
Meanwhile, higher fuel, energy, transport and payroll costs squeezed margins and prompted sharper selling-price increases. This combination of slowing activity and rising prices creates a difficult economic balance as businesses face pressure to recover costs without discouraging already fragile demand.
Although 44 percent of service providers expected activity to increase, compared with 13 percent anticipating decline, softer confidence suggests a cautious outlook. Sustaining the recovery will require stronger orders and easing cost pressures. These latest updates take the RPI to 12 and the RPI-P to 14, meaning that economic activities continue to outperform market expectations in the UK.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Forecasters see no revision in the final from the flash with the composite unchanged at 51.7. That is down from 52.5 in the August final.
Definition
The Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of service sector business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating transport and communication, financial intermediation, business services, personal services, computing and IT and hotels and restaurants. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The data are compiled by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) and S&P Global.
Description
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM non-manufacturing index in the U.S. and the S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
The S&P Global PMI services data give a detailed look at the services sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. The indexes are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.