| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Composite Index | 52.1 | 52.1 to 52.1 | 52.2 | 49.3 |
| Services Index | 51.8 | 51.8 to 51.8 | 52.1 | 48.8 |
Highlights
July’s PMI suggests a UK recovery taking its first careful steps. The composite output index rose sharply from 49.3 to 52.2, signalling renewed private-sector expansion, while services returned to growth at 52.1. Manufacturing production also recorded its strongest increase since September 2024.
However, this improvement remains fragile. Service activity was below its long-term average of 54.2, and new-order growth was only marginal. Falling overseas demand, geopolitical disruption and weak domestic conditions continue to restrain momentum. Declining backlogs further suggest spare business capacity, explaining why employment continued to fall despite rising output.
Easing inflation offers a more encouraging signal. Input-cost growth slowed to its weakest since February, supported by lower fuel bills, while output-price inflation reached a five-month low. This may strengthen consumer purchasing power, although wage, logistics and technology costs remain significant.
Business confidence nevertheless improved as 45 percent of service providers expect activity to rise, compared with 15 percent anticipating decline. Taken together, July marks a credible turning point, but sustained recovery requires stronger demand, renewed recruitment and greater geopolitical stability. These latest updates take the RPI to 33 and the RPI-P to 42, meaning that economic activities continue to outpace market expectations in the UK.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The forecast calls for no revision for the composite or services index from the flash at 52.1 and 51.8, respectively, for July. That would be up a lot from 49.3 and 48.8 in June, respectively.
Definition
The Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of service sector business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating transport and communication, financial intermediation, business services, personal services, computing and IT and hotels and restaurants. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The data are compiled by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) and S&P Global.
Description
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM non-manufacturing index in the U.S. and the S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
The S&P Global PMI services data give a detailed look at the services sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. The indexes are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.