| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
| Composite Index | 49.4 | 48.7 to 49.4 | 49.3 | 49.7 |
| Services Index | 48.7 | 48.7 to 53.1 | 48.8 | 49.3 |
Highlights
The UK private sector remained under pressure in June 2026, with the composite PMI declining to 49.3 from 49.7, a point below the consensus forecast and signalling a second consecutive month of contraction and the weakest overall business conditions since April 2025. The downturn was driven primarily by the services sector, where business activity contracted at its fastest pace in nearly three-and-a-half years, outweighing continued strength in manufacturing output.
Demand conditions weakened further, with new orders declining for a fourth consecutive month as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, domestic political uncertainty and elevated inflation continued to dampen business and consumer confidence. Export demand also remained subdued, particularly from European markets, although stronger sales to the United States provided some offset. The persistent decline in order books contributed to accelerated job losses, reflecting firms' efforts to contain costs amid weaker capacity utilisation and tighter profit margins.
Encouragingly, inflationary pressures continued to moderate. Input cost inflation eased to its weakest level since March, while firms also slowed the pace of output price increases, suggesting that cost pressures are gradually becoming more manageable. Put together, the latest data point to an economy facing a challenging demand environment despite easing inflation. Although business confidence improved modestly, the recovery remains fragile and will depend on stronger domestic demand, greater geopolitical stability and improved policy certainty to restore business investment and consumer spending.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus looks for no revision in the final from the flash at 49.4 for composite and 48.7 for services.
Definition
The Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of service sector business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating transport and communication, financial intermediation, business services, personal services, computing and IT and hotels and restaurants. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The data are compiled by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) and S&P Global.
Description
Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM non-manufacturing index in the U.S. and the S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.
The S&P Global PMI services data give a detailed look at the services sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. The indexes are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.